Key Points Drivers and impacts of Australia's record drought were analyzed Impacts accumulated and propagated through the water cycle at different rates Future droughts may not be managed better than past ones.

[1] The water table fluctuation method for determining recharge from precipitation and water table measurements was originally developed on an event basis. Here a new multievent time series approach is presented for inferring groundwater recharge from longterm water table and precipitation records. Additional new features are the incorporation of a variable specific yield based upon the soil moisture retention curve, proper accounting for the Lisse effect on the water table, and the incorporation of aquifer drainage so that recharge can be detected even if the water table does not rise. A methodology for filtering noise and non-rainfall-related water table fluctuations is also presented. The model has been applied to 2 years of field data collected in the Tomago sand beds near Newcastle, Australia. It is shown that gross recharge estimates are very sensitive to time step size and specific yield. Properly accounting for the Lisse effect is also important to determining recharge.Citation: Crosbie, R. S., P. Binning, and J. D. Kalma (2005), A time series approach to inferring groundwater recharge using the water table fluctuation method, Water Resour. Res., 41, W01008,

[1] Considering that past climate changes have significantly impacted groundwater resources, quantitative predictions of climate change effects on groundwater recharge may be valuable for effective management of future water resources. This study used 16 global climate models (GCMs) and three global warming scenarios to investigate changes in groundwater recharge rates for a 2050 climate relative to a 1990 climate in the U.S. High Plains region. Groundwater recharge was modeled using the Soil-Vegetation-AtmosphereTransfer model WAVES for a variety of soil and vegetation types representative of the High Plains. The median projection under a 2050 climate includes increased recharge in the Northern High Plains (þ8%), a slight decrease in the Central High Plains (À3%), and a larger decrease in the Southern High Plains (À10%), amplifying the current spatial trend in recharge from north to south. There is considerable uncertainty in both the magnitude and direction of these changes in recharge projections. Predicted changes in recharge between dry and wet future climate scenarios encompass both an increase and decrease in recharge rates, with the magnitude of this range greater than 50% of current recharge. On a proportional basis, sensitivity of recharge to changes in rainfall indicates that areas with high current recharge rates are least sensitive to change in rainfall and vice versa. Sensitivity analyses indicate an amplification of change in recharge compared to change in rainfall, and this amplification is in the range of 1-6 with an average of 2.5-3.5 depending upon the global warming scenario.

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[1] The impact of climate change upon groundwater has an increasing profile in the literature but there is little guidance on selecting Global Climate Models (GCMs), downscaling methods or hydrological models. This paper quantifies the relative uncertainties inherent in projections of future recharge contributed by multiple GCMs, downscaling methods and hydrological models at three locations across southern Australia. Results highlight that the choice of GCM is the largest source of uncertainty, with a median range between the highest and lowest GCM of 53% of the historical recharge for a given downscaling method and hydrological model. The downscaling method is the next largest source of uncertainty with a median range of 44% and the choice of hydrological model is the source of the least uncertainty with a median range of 24%. These results strongly suggest that impact studies should use multiple GCMs and give careful consideration to the choice of downscaling methods.