Wachstum ohne Beschäftigung – empirische Evidenz aus Nahost und Nordafrika

Abstract

In this study, we use Okun's Law to examine whether growth has been jobless in seventeen MENA countries. The methods used are the ARDL approach for the individual country and the panel data analysis for the entire sample. The period considered in this study is from 1980 to 2013. To test for results robustness, we estimate the dynamic difference and three gap models based on three detrending techniques: the HP filter, the BK filter, and the quadratic trend. Our findings can be summarized as follows: First, the estimation results suggest that Okun's Law is valid, and hence job creation is associated with growth in only six of the seventeen countries, namely Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey. Second, our results reveal that the valid estimates are, in general, bigger in Arab than non-Arab countries in the sample. Third, the CUSUM of squares test confirms that Okun's Law is stable in Algeria, Egypt, and Iran, unstable in Jordan, and ambiguous in Lebanon and Turkey. Fourth, our panel data analyses suggest that Okun's Law is valid for the entire MENA sample; however, our estimations reveal that the impact of GDP growth is weak on job creation in the region. Finally, our individual and panel estimations are not robust as they are sensitive to the choice of the estimation model and to the de-trending method.

Working Poverty and Quality of Employment: The Great Refugee Crisis in Middle Eastern Host Countries

“…Previous studies have used this methodology for the analysis of different labour market issues in the countries of the Middle East (Hamia & A, 2016;Awan et al, 2020;Bawazir et al, 2022).First, an analysis of Pearson's bilateral correlation coefficients was carried out to determine the possible interdependencies between the study variables (Elhorst, 2014). -Labour variables are expressed as percentages and ratios concerning the total population (except the unemployment rate).…”

Untitled

“…Both are used extensively to investigate jobless growth or the job-creation effect of output expansion in economies. While Okun's Law examines growth and unemployment (or employment gap) interaction in magnitude (Abou Hamia, 2016;Hanusch, 2012), employment intensity of economic growth measures the extent of employment creation resulting from output growth (Mkhize, 2019;Upender, 2006). Thus, the latter approach aims to measure the magnitude of economic performance transformed into employment generation.…”

İşsizlik ve Ekonomik Çıktı İlişkisi: Mısır için Okun Yasası Analizi

“…Bu sebeple, Mısır'da 1970-2016 yılları arasında milli gelir ve işsizlik arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin söz konusu olmadığı anlaşılmaktadır. (Hamia 2016;Ari 2016). Mısır için iki değişkeni ele alan ilk çalışmalardan olan Moosa (2008) değişkenler arasında zayıf bir ilişki tespit etmiş ve Okun katsayısını -0,001 olarak bulmuştur.…”