Volcanic and volcano-tectonic activity forecasting: a review on seismic approaches

Abstract

Forecasting volcanic activity is a difficult problem that is being addressed worldwide from different perspectives. Significant advances have been made after the introduction of non-linear dynamical systems theory and the use of power-law distributions of different geophysical parameters in the Earth Sciences. In particular, frequency-magnitude power-law statistics evidences the scale-invariance and self-organization of seismicity, and brittle fracture models show that under certain conditions, a precursory causal evolution characterized by an accelerating strain rate culminates in a catastrophic failure of the system under stress. The precursory organization of the seismicity and the distinct characteristics of the seismic events have allowed the development of forecasting tools. In this work we present some examples of forecasting methods based on seismic observations at different volcanoes in the world, and how results and experiences has been used to improve both hardware and software tools developed for short-term forecasting of volcanic and seismo-volcanic activity.

‘Silent’ Dome Emplacement into a Wet Volcano: Observations from an Effusive Eruption at White Island (Whakaari), New Zealand in Late 2012

“…Several data reduction methods [27] have been proposed to characterize its short-and long-term time evolution, that can lead to the identification of significant transitions between volcanic processes [28], sometimes triggered by external or internal events such as tectonic or volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic events [29]. Volcanic tremor can also occur precursory to an eruption [30][31][32][33]. However, the origins of tremor may vary at different volcanoes, and are often poorly understood; moreover, many different seismic sources can act at the same time and combine to produce the signal of interest [27].…”

Identifying earthquake swarms at Mt. Ruapehu, New Zealand: a machine learning approach

“…For example, studies have shown that the duration of swarms that result in volcanic activity can vary significantly (McNutt, 2005), making eruption forecasting difficult. Moreover, in many cases, a sudden increase in earthquake activity, even for highly active volcanoes, has not resulted in a volcanic eruption (Ramis et al, 2018;Gudmundsson, 2020). To enhance the precision and consistency of earthquake swarms in volcanic eruption forecasts, it would be advantageous to develop a more objective and statistically-driven methodology for identifying various types of earthquake sequences.…”