Human activity causes vibrations that propagate into the ground as high-frequency seismic waves. Measures to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread changes in human activity, leading to a months-long reduction in seismic noise of up to 50%. The 2020 seismic noise quiet period is the longest and most prominent global anthropogenic seismic noise reduction on record. While the reduction is strongest at surface seismometers in populated areas, this seismic quiescence extends for many kilometers radially and hundreds of meters in depth. This provides an opportunity to detect subtle signals from subsurface seismic sources that would have been concealed in noisier times and to benchmark sources of anthropogenic noise. A strong correlation between seismic noise and independent measurements of human mobility suggests that seismology provides an absolute, real-time estimate of population dynamics.

Many active volcanoes around the world alternate episodes of unrest and mildly explosive eruptions with quiescent periods dominated by abundant but passive gas emissions. These are the so-called persistently degassing volcanoes, and well-known examples are Mayon (Philippines) and Etna (Italy). Here, we develop a new lumped-parameter model to investigate by how much the gas released during quiescence can decrease the pressure within persistently degassing volcanoes. Our model is driven by the gas fluxes measured with monitoring systems and takes into account the size of the conduit and reservoir, the viscoelastic response of the crust, the magma density change, the bubble exsolution and expansion at depth, and the hydraulic connectivity between reservoirs and deeper magma sources. A key new finding is that, for a vast majority of scenarios, passive degassing reduces the pressure of shallow magma reservoirs by several MPa in only a few months or years, that is, within the intereruptive timescales of persistently degassing volcanoes. Degassing-induced depressurization could be responsible for the subsidence observed at some volcanoes during quiescence (e.g., at Satsuma-Iwojima and Asama, in Japan; Masaya, in Nicaragua; and Llaima, in Chile), and could play a crucial role in the onset and development of the physical processes which may in turn culminate in new unrest episodes and eruptions. For example, degassing-induced depressurization could promote magma replenishment, induce massive and sudden gas exsolution at depth, and trigger the collapse of the crater floor and reservoir roof.

Understanding the mechanisms that control the start-up of volcanic unrest is crucial to improve the forecasting of eruptions at active volcanoes. Among the most active volcanoes in the world are the so-called persistently degassing ones (e.g., Etna, Italy; Merapi, Indonesia), which emit massive amounts of gas during quiescence (several kilotonnes per day) and erupt every few months or years. The hyperactivity of these volcanoes results from frequent pressurizations of the shallow magma plumbing system, which in most cases are thought to occur by the ascent of magma from deep to shallow reservoirs. However, the driving force that causes magma ascent from depth remains unknown. Here we demonstrate that magma ascent can be triggered by the passive release of gas during quiescence, which induces the opening of pathways connecting deep and shallow magma reservoirs. This top-down mechanism for volcanic eruptions contrasts with the more common bottom-up mechanisms in which magma ascent is only driven by processes occurring at depth. A cause-effect relationship between passive degassing and magma ascent can explain the fact that repose times are typically much longer than unrest times preceding eruptions, and may account for the so frequent unrest episodes of persistently degassing volcanoes.