Significant deformations, followed by increased seismicity detected since 2011 July at El Hierro, Canary Islands, Spain, prompted the deployment of additional monitoring equipment. The climax of this unrest was a submarine eruption first detected on 2011 October 10, and located at about 2 km SW of La Restinga, southernmost village of El Hierro Island. The eruption ceased on 2012 March 5, after the volcanic tremor signals persistently weakened through 2012 February. However, the seismic activity did not end with the eruption, as several other seismic crises followed. The seismic episodes presented a characteristic pattern: over a few days the number and magnitude of seismic event increased persistently, culminating in seismic events severe enough to be felt all over the island.
Following more than 30 years of seismic and volcanic quiescence, the Canary Islands region located off the northwestern coast of Africa started to show signs of seismovolcanic activity at the end of 2003 (Figure 1). In spring 2004, there was a significant increase in the number of seismic events (a mixture of volcano‐tectonic events and regional earthquakes with pure volcanic events such as tremors and long‐period signals) located inland on Tenerife Island.
The increase ofactivity in 2004 coincided with an increase of fumarolic activity at the Teide volcano on Tenerife Island, an increase in the emission of carbon dioxide in the northwestern part of the island, and changes in the gravimetric field on the northern flank of the volcano. After several seismic events had been felt by the population, the first alert level was declared by the civil protection division of the local government.This apparent reawakening of Teide, which last erupted in 1909, provides an opportunity to study from the initial stages the reactivation of this volcanic area and its related phenomena.
Abstract. The island of Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain), is showing possible signs of reawakening after its last basaltic strombolian eruption, dated 1909 at Chinyero. The main concern relates to the central active volcanic complex TeidePico Viejo, which poses serious hazards to the properties and population of the island of Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain), and which has erupted several times during the last 5000 years, including a subplinian phonolitic eruption (Montaña Blanca) about 2000 years ago. In this paper we show the presence of low frequency seismic noise which possibly includes tremor of volcanic origin and we investigate the feasibility of using it to forecast, via the material failure forecast method, the time of occurrence of discrete events that could be called Volcano-Tectonic or simply Tectonic (i.e. non volcanic) on the basis of their relationship to volcanic activity. In order to avoid subjectivity in the forecast procedure, an automatic program has been developed to generate forecasts, validated by Bayes theorem. A parameter called "forecast gain" measures (and for the first time quantitatively) what is gained in probabilistic terms by applying the (automatic) failure forecast method. The clear correlation between the obtained forecasts and the occurrence of (Volcano-)Tectonic seismic events -a clear indication of a relationship between the continuous seismic noise and the discrete seismic events -is the explanation for the high value of this "forecast gain" in both 2004 and 2005 and an indication that the events are Volcano-Tectonic rather than purely Tectonic.
In recent years concerns have been growing in the scientific community over the definition of scientific responsibilities during emergencies, and the legal status of scientists involved in the corresponding decision-making. It is clear that the legal framework is one of the main elements affecting this issue; however, many factors may affect both the specific scientific decision-making and the definition of general scientific responsibilities. The situation will vary depending on the type and scale of emergency, and from place to place, even in the same country. There will be no such thing as a single, ideal solution. In the latest El Hierro volcanic crisis many factors have negatively affected the scientific management and have prevented an adequate definition of scientific responsibility. These factors have been detected and documented by the authors. They include excessive pressure due to human and economic issues, a poor legal framework with identifiable deficiencies, an Emergency Plan in which the Volcanic Activity/Alert Level (VAL), Emergency Response Level (ERL) and Volcanic Traffic Light (VTL) have been too rigidly linked, serious weaknesses in the management and structure of the Scientific Committee (SC), and more. Even though some of these problems have now been detected and certain solutions have already been proposed, the slowness and complexity of the bureaucratic processes are making it difficult to implement solutions.
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