Vehicle fleet turnover and the future of fuel economy

Keith, David R.; Houston, Samantha; Naumov, Sergey

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaf4d2

Cited by 44 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…92 ). Due to long time lags of vehicle stock turnover (with vehicles lasting 15-25 years), the impacts of a freeze are especially detrimental in the long-run 93 .…”

Section: Strengthen Vehicle Emissions Standards Cut the Loopholesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crafting strong, integrated policy mixes for deep CO2 mitigation in road transport

Axsen

Plötz

Wolinetz³

2020

Nat. Clim. Chang.

179

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hile present transport systems provide numerous benefits, the negative societal impacts are enormous. In particular, the global transportation sector is responsible for almost one-quarter of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (mostly CO 2), with about 72% thereof from road transport 1. Despite decades of progress for alternative and low-carbon fuels and technologies, most developed countries remain locked-in to the dominance of privately owned, fossil fuel-powered vehicles 2,3. Transport emissions are expected to grow further in scenarios produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA), even if currently announced policies are implemented (Fig. 1) 4-6. This Perspective summarizes available evidence for which policy mixes can be highly effective in reducing GHG emissions within road transport in the long-term while pointing out directions for further policy and research development. Clearly the transportation sector needs to carry its weight in meeting deep decarbonization goals. Compared to 2019, both the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Paris Agreement scenarios require global GHG reductions of about 30-40% by 2030, 60-80% by 2050 and likely close to 100% (or zero net emissions) thereafter 5,7. GHG mitigation ambitions are higher in Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries because they are the source of most historical emissions and are thought to have more flexibility for large-scale investment in low-carbon technologies 8. Because expected mitigation costs are lower in road transport than in aviation or shipping 9-11 , we start with the assumption that road transport should at least proportionally fulfil the ambition of the total mitigation targets noted above. That said, emissions from aviation and shipping are growing more quickly and require additional GHG mitigation policies 2. We focus on national and regional policymaking. Cities are important in the transition towards more sustainable transport, but their scope for governmental climate change action tends to be smaller than on the national level 12. While we identify insights with global relevance, most of the available literature analyses developed countries, mainly in Europe and North Americapointing to a clear research need to better understand climate policy design for developing countries. Further, our analysis focuses more on passenger travel which is responsible for most GHG emissions in transport, though we call for more attention to road freight.

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“…92 ). Due to long time lags of vehicle stock turnover (with vehicles lasting 15-25 years), the impacts of a freeze are especially detrimental in the long-run 93 .…”

Section: Strengthen Vehicle Emissions Standards Cut the Loopholesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crafting strong, integrated policy mixes for deep CO2 mitigation in road transport

Axsen

Plötz

Wolinetz³

2020

Nat. Clim. Chang.

179

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…IHS Markit (2021) reported the average age of LDVs in operation on US roads is 12.1 years in 2021 -a 15% increase in the last decade -and is expected to continue to grow. One study that analyzed US vehicle data found that the useful life of an ICE LDV can reach up to 30 years (Keith et al, 2019). 2018).…”

Section: Interlinked Components Of True Decommissioningmentioning

confidence: 99%

True Decommissioning: Removing Internal Combustion Engine Light-Duty Vehicles Permanently, Quickly, and Equitably

Syal¹,

Eggerman²,

Gerritsen³

2021

Preprint

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In this paper, we define True Decommissioning as the removal of internal combustion engine light-duty vehicles from the road permanently, quickly, and equitably. We discuss each interlinked component of True Decommissioning. We then outline the next steps for implementation, including engaging stakeholders, evaluating economic costs and benefits, and understanding policies and programs. Finally, we present a table of unanswered research questions in this area, including those our research group is working on. We welcome discussions on how we can achieve True Decommissioning and work together to facilitate an equitable transition to clean light-duty vehicle mobility for all.

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“…Numerous studies have investigated the factors that influence the amount of vehicle emissions and fuel consumption and proposed control strategies accordingly. From the perspective of vehicles, technologies such as emission after-treatment and vehicle fleet electrification can lead to a substantial decrease in emissions and fuel consumption [ 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 ]. Methods that mitigate traffic congestion, such as adaptive signal timing control, countdown signal timers, predictive cruise control, and connected automated vehicles (CAVs) can also effectively control traffic emissions through shorter delays and less stop-and-go operations [ 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effective and Acceptable Eco-Driving Guidance for Human-Driving Vehicles: A Review

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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Eco-driving guidance refers to courses, warnings, or suggestions provided to human drivers to improve driving behaviour to enable less energy use and emissions. This paper reviews existing eco-driving guidance studies and identifies challenges to tackle in the future. We summarize two categories of current guidance systems, static and dynamic, distinguished by whether real-world driving records are used to generate behaviour guidance or not. We find that influencing factors, such as the content of suggestions, the display methods, and drivers’ socio-demographic characteristics, have varied effects on the guidance results across studies. Drivers are reported to have basic eco-driving knowledge, while the question of how to motivate the acceptance and practice of such behaviour, especially in the long term, is overlooked. Adaptive driving suggestions based on drivers’ individual habits can improve the effectiveness and acceptance while this field is under investigation. In-vehicle assistance presents potential safety issues, and visualized in-vehicle assistance is reported to be most distractive. Given existing studies focusing on the operational level, a common agreement on the guidance design and associated influencing factors has yet to be reached. Research on the systematic and tactical design of eco-driving guidance and in-vehicle interaction is advised.

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Vehicle fleet turnover and the future of fuel economy

Cited by 44 publications

References 5 publications

Crafting strong, integrated policy mixes for deep CO2 mitigation in road transport

Crafting strong, integrated policy mixes for deep CO2 mitigation in road transport

True Decommissioning: Removing Internal Combustion Engine Light-Duty Vehicles Permanently, Quickly, and Equitably

Effective and Acceptable Eco-Driving Guidance for Human-Driving Vehicles: A Review

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