Crafting strong, integrated policy mixes for deep CO2 mitigation in road transport

Abstract

hile present transport systems provide numerous benefits, the negative societal impacts are enormous. In particular, the global transportation sector is responsible for almost one-quarter of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (mostly CO 2), with about 72% thereof from road transport 1. Despite decades of progress for alternative and low-carbon fuels and technologies, most developed countries remain locked-in to the dominance of privately owned, fossil fuel-powered vehicles 2,3. Transport emissions are expected to grow further in scenarios produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA), even if currently announced policies are implemented (Fig. 1) 4-6. This Perspective summarizes available evidence for which policy mixes can be highly effective in reducing GHG emissions within road transport in the long-term while pointing out directions for further policy and research development. Clearly the transportation sector needs to carry its weight in meeting deep decarbonization goals. Compared to 2019, both the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Paris Agreement scenarios require global GHG reductions of about 30-40% by 2030, 60-80% by 2050 and likely close to 100% (or zero net emissions) thereafter 5,7. GHG mitigation ambitions are higher in Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries because they are the source of most historical emissions and are thought to have more flexibility for large-scale investment in low-carbon technologies 8. Because expected mitigation costs are lower in road transport than in aviation or shipping 9-11 , we start with the assumption that road transport should at least proportionally fulfil the ambition of the total mitigation targets noted above. That said, emissions from aviation and shipping are growing more quickly and require additional GHG mitigation policies 2. We focus on national and regional policymaking. Cities are important in the transition towards more sustainable transport, but their scope for governmental climate change action tends to be smaller than on the national level 12. While we identify insights with global relevance, most of the available literature analyses developed countries, mainly in Europe and North Americapointing to a clear research need to better understand climate policy design for developing countries. Further, our analysis focuses more on passenger travel which is responsible for most GHG emissions in transport, though we call for more attention to road freight.

Steering a Green, Healthy, and Inclusive Recovery Through Transport

“…Solutions vary greatly based on a geography's market readiness and charging availability. Policies should mix market "pulls," inducing EV supply and demand through fiscal and nonfiscal incentives, and "pushes," through directives for EV procurement and limits or prohibitions on ICE vehicle production (Axsen et al 2020) (see Table 1). These regulations should align public and private stakeholders, as well as country and city levels.…”

“…In China, several studies find that cities with high-speed rail network links have greater boosts in local GDP and tourism, reduced traffic fatalities on highways, and higher economic growth than those without (Li et al 2018;Lawrence et al 2019;Li et al 2020). In lieu of high-speed rail, simply reintroducing passenger service on existing rail lines, increasing frequency, or improving Axsen et al (2020).…”

Recent Impacts on the Automotive Electronics Industry [Automotive Electronics]

“…According to the study, transportation is responsible for almost a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions in the world, 72% of which is due solely to road traffic. At the same time, the transportation sector is the only area where emissions continue to increase, despite the fact that political measures have been implemented to meet the goals of the Paris accord: compared to 2019, emissions must be reduced by 30-40% by 2030 and by 60-80% by 2050 [16], as presented in Figure 8 after The 2018 legislated policies are in red, additional announced policies appear in orange, and International Energy Agency scenarios that are well below 2 °C are given in green. Small boxes show ranges of transportation emissions that are compatible with 1.5 °C overshoot scenarios for all modes (green boxes) and road modes only (dark-green boxes).…”

“…GtCO 2 e: gigatons of equivalent CO 2 . (Source: [16].) that, they should be close to zero, according to an analysis by scientists from the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Simon Fraser University, and Navius Research.…”

“…Regarding the impact that policies (for instance, bonuses for the purchase of electric cars) have at a national level, the study shows that incentives are successful only if they are relatively high and valid for at least 10 years. To support the claim, the study's authors point to the case in Norway, which has been promoting electric cars with incentives worth 10,000-15,000 euros for 20 years, leading EVs to a market share of more than 60% [16].…”