Variations of Sea Level and Global Climate in Modern Conditions

Abstract

Global warming can result in the rise of Sea Level (SL) by 40–100 cm by the end of the XXI century with possible catastrophic consequences for coastal zone. Study and prediction of long-term fluctuations of sea level is among the most important problems of modern hydrometeorology. A series of studies of SL interannual fluctuations have been carried out in RSHU. A reconstruction of SL fluctuations during the observation period of 1861-2010, i.e. 150 years, was performed on the basis of the developed statistical model showing a powerful linear trend describing 94% of the initial row dispersion. During the XX century the trend approached 1.8 mm/year. The comparison of actual and calculated SL trends for two periods (1980–2005 and 1993-2003) has shown that the residual error makes respectively 0.21 and 0.22 mm/year that is three times less, than in the Fourth IPCC report. Also, for the first time the complex of methods of SL longterm forecast was developed: the main advantage of a simple statistical model of SL longterm forecast is a minimum of initial information, but the model accuracy is comparable with complex and expensive ocean and atmosphere circulation models. The two-decade range physical-statistical sea level prediction model was developed for the first time based on the idea that Global Air Temperature (GAT) is a major factor of SL changes. It was experimentally shown that there is a long delay (20 and 30 years) of SL fluctuations with respect to Global Air Temperature.