Study of sea level is being developed at RSHU in several directions: global, regional and local. The global one includes the study of the patterns of interannual fluctuations of the global sea level (GLS), identification of their genesis and development of a set of methods for its long-term forecast. Two approaches to the genesis of GLS are considered. In foreign studies, changes in GLS are determined by changes in the water mass of various cryosphere components, land water reserves and steric level fluctuations. Another approach, implemented at RSHU, is to assess contributions of various factors using the equation of the freshwater balance of the World Ocean as the sum of eustatic and steric factors. A physical-statistical method for two-decade GLS forecasting, based on delay in the GLS response to air temperature over the ocean, has been developed, as well as the GLS projections at the end of the century for climatic scenarios according to the CMIP5 project have been provided. In the regional context, the main attention is paid to identifying the genesis of the interannual variability of the Caspian Sea level with the aim of its long-term forecasting. The entire chain of cause-and-effect relationships in the North Atlantic-atmosphere-Volga basin-Caspian level system is discussed. It has been established that, as a result of the intensification of cyclonic activity in the North Atlantic, especially in the Norwegian Sea, caused by the processes of large-scale interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere, there is an increase in evaporation and in the zonal transfer of water vapour to Europe and then to the Volga basin. Therefore, more precipitation falls in the runoff-forming zone of the basin, the annual runoff of the Volga and the level of the Caspian Sea increasing. The reverse is observed with weakening of cyclonic activity in the North Atlantic. In view of this, the level of the Caspian Sea is an integral indicator of largescale moisture exchange in the ocean-atmosphere-land system. The article discusses the features of interannual sea level fluctuations in Kronstadt since 1836. A simple two-parameter model for forecasting sea level by the end of the 21st century is proposed for major climate scenarios, the predictors being the GSL and the North Atlantic Oscillation. According to the most realistic forecast, the level in Kronstadt may rise to 34-59 cm (Baltic system) by the end of the century, while according to the “pessimistic” one — to 80-90 cm (Baltic system). The estimates of the extreme storm surge at which the level rise north of the Gorskaya can reach 600 cm (Baltic system) are given. The effect of flooding from storm surges is especially strong near Sestroretsk. The total area of possible flooding of the Kurortny district at a 4-m high surge wave exceeds 1260 hectares, all the beaches being completely lost. The trajectories of flood cyclones and their role for periods of climate warming and cooling are considered
Статья посвящена изученности изменений уровня Мирового океана (УМО) в прошлом и настоящем, анализу генезиса его межгодовых колебаний, а также проекциям УМО на длительную (столетие) перспективу. Рассмотрены два подхода к генезису УМО. В зарубежных исследованиях используется уравнение баланса вод в гидросфере, согласно которому изменения УМО определяются соответствующими изменениями массы воды различных компонент криосферы и запасов поверхностных и подземных вод суши. Другой подход состоит в том, что оценка вкладов различных факторов осуществляется с использованием уравнения пресноводного баланса Мирового океана как сумма эвстатических и стерического факторов. Рассматриваются проекции УМО на конец столетия на основе климатических сценариев по проекту СMIP5. В связи с возможным резким потеплением климата обсуждаются вероятности экстремальных сценариев роста УМО до 2,5 м.
Paper describes digitalization development results of icebreaker support for fuel-energy resources transportation via Arctic and Subarctic within Industry 4.0 era under climate change and COVID-19. In study, there are used theory of decision making under uncertainties, risk management approach, Foresight technologies, methods of databases constructing in case of digital risk management platforms. In research, preference is given to the use of geo-information digital online platforms, which integrate heterogeneous hardware and software resources with the use of web-technologies in distributed networks and wide application of cloud services. There is considered examples of chosen platforms using for icebreaker support of fuel-energy resources transportation via Arctic and Subarctic within Industry 4.0 era under climate change and COVID-19. The presented research results have significant scientific novelty and can be useful for state environmental control bodies, commercial organizations and private investors.
Global warming can result in the rise of Sea Level (SL) by 40–100 cm by the end of the XXI century with possible catastrophic consequences for coastal zone. Study and prediction of long-term fluctuations of sea level is among the most important problems of modern hydrometeorology. A series of studies of SL interannual fluctuations have been carried out in RSHU. A reconstruction of SL fluctuations during the observation period of 1861-2010, i.e. 150 years, was performed on the basis of the developed statistical model showing a powerful linear trend describing 94% of the initial row dispersion. During the XX century the trend approached 1.8 mm/year. The comparison of actual and calculated SL trends for two periods (1980–2005 and 1993-2003) has shown that the residual error makes respectively 0.21 and 0.22 mm/year that is three times less, than in the Fourth IPCC report. Also, for the first time the complex of methods of SL longterm forecast was developed: the main advantage of a simple statistical model of SL longterm forecast is a minimum of initial information, but the model accuracy is comparable with complex and expensive ocean and atmosphere circulation models. The two-decade range physical-statistical sea level prediction model was developed for the first time based on the idea that Global Air Temperature (GAT) is a major factor of SL changes. It was experimentally shown that there is a long delay (20 and 30 years) of SL fluctuations with respect to Global Air Temperature.
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