Variability and decline in the number of severe tropical cyclones making land-fall over eastern Australia since the late nineteenth century

Callaghan, Jeff; Power, Scott B.

doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0883-2

Cited by 89 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 25 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…back to the late 1800s) as Haig et al (2014) show that the decline in TC activity has been occurring since the mid-to-late 1800s. This result fits with Callaghan and Power's (2011) conclusions as it does also with the sand beach-ridge and coral shingle-ridge records (Nott and Hayne 2001;Nott 2003;Nott et al 2009). Nott (2015) used the statistical approach of Nott and Jagger (2013) and combined it with LiDAR-generated cross-sectional profiles of beach-ridge plains to develop a desktop, rapid means of assessing the return frequency of inundations for a variety of locations along the northeast Queensland coast.…”

Section: Natural Long-term Records-beach Ridgessupporting

confidence: 79%

Synthetic versus long-term natural records of tropical cyclone storm surges: problems and issues

Nott

2016

Geosci. Lett.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The majority of risk assessments of tropical cyclone storm surge and inundations are based on the generation of synthetic times series from short historical records. The accuracy of these synthetic time series in terms of the frequency of the most extreme magnitude events is difficult to test using this methodology alone. Comparisons with other approaches such as deterministically derived synthetic time-series and/or long-term natural records of these events are required. Major discrepancies often arise when such comparisons are made especially when it becomes evident that the frequency of extreme events is under-represented in the short historical records upon which the synthetic time series are based. The solution to the problem though is not as simple as replacing one type of time series with the other. As the number and the types of long-term natural records increase, it is becoming apparent that non-stationarity is an inherent feature of the natural variability of these events. This non-stationarity can be manifested as distinct periods of time, in the past, of varying event-frequency probabilities, which, at least in some cases, have climatic causes. In these cases, it may not be appropriate to use entire long-term record sets for risk assessments because certain periods of time or sections of these records may have event frequencies resulting from climate states substantially different to that expected in the future. Identifying the most appropriate past climate states and associated event behaviour may serve as better analogues for assessing future risk.

show abstract

Section: Natural Long-term Records-beach Ridgessupporting

confidence: 79%

Synthetic versus long-term natural records of tropical cyclone storm surges: problems and issues

Nott

2016

Geosci. Lett.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…While teasing apart the effects of rising temperatures and increasing amounts of ocean acidification is difficult, both thermal stress, and acidification have the potential to reduce the ability of corals to recover from stresses (Hughes et al, 2007). This may help explain why stressors such as cyclones, which do not appear to have increased in frequency over the past 30 years (Callaghan and Power, 2011;IPCC, 2013), appear to be having longer-lasting impacts on coral communities on the Great Barrier Reef (De'ath et al, 2012).…”

Section: Ecological Ramifications Of Rapid Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Coral Reef Ecosystems under Climate Change and Ocean Acidification

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Coral reefs are found in a wide range of environments, where they provide food and habitat to a large range of organisms as well as providing many other ecological goods and services. Warm-water coral reefs, for example, occupy shallow sunlit, warm, and alkaline waters in order to grow and calcify at the high rates necessary to build and maintain their calcium carbonate structures. At deeper locations (40-150 m), "mesophotic" (low light) coral reefs accumulate calcium carbonate at much lower rates (if at all in some cases) yet remain important as habitat for a wide range of organisms, including those important for fisheries. Finally, even deeper, down to 2,000 m or more, the so-called "cold-water" coral reefs are found in the dark depths. Despite their importance, coral reefs are facing significant challenges from human activities including pollution, over-harvesting, physical destruction, and climate change. In the latter case, even lower greenhouse gas emission scenarios (such as Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 4.5) are likely drive the elimination of most warm-water coral reefs by 2040-2050. Cold-water corals are also threatened by warming temperatures and ocean acidification although evidence of the direct effect of climate change is less clear. Evidence that coral reefs can adapt at rates which are sufficient for them to keep up with rapid ocean warming and acidification is minimal, especially given that corals are long-lived and hence have slow rates of evolution. Conclusions that coral reefs will migrate to higher latitudes as they warm are equally unfounded, with the observations of tropical species appearing at high latitudes "necessary but not sufficient" evidence that entire coral reef ecosystems are shifting. On the contrary, coral reefs are likely to degrade rapidly over the next 20 years, presenting fundamental challenges for the 500 million people who derive food, income, coastal protection, and a range of other services from coral reefs. Unless rapid advances to the goals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement occur over the next decade, hundreds of millions of people are likely to face increasing amounts of poverty and social disruption, and, in some cases, regional insecurity.

show abstract

“…Changes in the Walker circulation are related to important changes in rainfall (Allan et al 1996;Power et al 1999), river flow (Power et al 1999), agricultural production (Power et al 1999;Hammer et al 2000), ecosystems (Holmgren et al 2001), severe weather (e.g., Callaghan and Power 2011), and disease (Bouma and Dye 1997). Furthermore, interdecadal changes in the Walker circulation are also related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that causes important changes in monsoonal circulations and rainfall in neighboring nations (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%