Synthetic versus long-term natural records of tropical cyclone storm surges: problems and issues

Nott, Jonathan

doi:10.1186/s40562-016-0040-9

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 37 publications

(80 reference statements)

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“…Consequently, risk assessments in areas exposed to tropical cyclone storm surges commonly utilize synthetic records of such events, generated based on historical observations (e.g. Nott, 2016). To generate synthetic records, wind and pressure fields simulated from statistical models of tropical cyclone behaviours are used to drive hydrodynamic storm surge models (Haigh et al, 2014).…”

Section: Trivariate Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Multivariate statistical modelling of the drivers of compound flood events in south Florida

Jane

Cadavid

Obeysekera

et al. 2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Miami-Dade County (south-east Florida) is among the most vulnerable regions to sea level rise in the United States, due to a variety of natural and human factors. The co-occurrence of multiple, often statistically dependent flooding drivers – termed compound events – typically exacerbates impacts compared with their isolated occurrence. Ignoring dependencies between the drivers will potentially lead to underestimation of flood risk and under-design of flood defence structures. In Miami-Dade County water control structures were designed assuming full dependence between rainfall and Ocean-side Water Level (O-sWL), a conservative assumption inducing large safety factors. Here, an analysis of the dependence between the principal flooding drivers over a range of lags at three locations across the county is carried out. A two-dimensional analysis of rainfall and O-sWL showed that the magnitude of the conservative assumption in the original design is highly sensitive to the regional sea level rise projection considered. Finally, the vine copula and Heffernan and Tawn (2004) models are shown to outperform five standard higher-dimensional copulas in capturing the dependence between the principal drivers of compound flooding: rainfall, O-sWL, and groundwater level. The work represents a first step towards the development of a new framework capable of capturing dependencies between different flood drivers that could potentially be incorporated into future Flood Protection Level of Service (FPLOS) assessments for coastal water control structures.

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Section: Trivariate Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Multivariate statistical modelling of the drivers of compound flood events in south Florida

Jane

Cadavid

Obeysekera

et al. 2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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show abstract

“…Nevertheless, observational records of the length available for this study contain relatively few tropical cyclone events. Consequently, risk assessments in areas exposed to tropical cyclone storm surges commonly utilize synthetic records of such events, generated based on historical observations (e.g., Nott, 2016). To generate synthetic records, wind and pressure fields simulated from statistical models of tropical cyclone behaviours are used to drive hydrodynamic storm surge models (Haigh et al, 2014).…”

Section: Trivariate Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Multivariate statistical modelling of the drivers of compound flood events in South Florida

Jane¹,

Cadavid²,

Obeysekera³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Miami-Dade County (south-east Florida) is among the most vulnerable regions to sea-level rise in the United States, due to a variety of natural and human factors. The co-occurrence of multiple, often statistically dependent flooding drivers – termed compound events – typically exacerbates impacts compared with their isolated occurrence. Ignoring dependencies between the drivers will potentially lead to underestimation of flood risk and under-design of flood defence structures. At present, design assessments of flood defence structures in Miami-Dade County assume rainfall and Ocean-side Water Level (O-sWL) are fully dependent, a conservative assumption inducing large safety factors. Here, an analysis of the dependence between the principal flooding drivers over a range of lags at three locations across the county is carried out. The conservative nature of the existing structural design assessment is subsequently explored, by combining a two-dimensional analysis of rainfall and O-sWL with regional sea-level rise projections. Finally, the vine copula and Heffernan and Tawn (2004) models are shown to outperform five standard higher dimensional copulas in capturing the dependence between the principal drivers of compound flooding: rainfall, O-sWL, and groundwater level. This leads to recommendations for revised future design frameworks able to capture and represent dependencies between different flood drivers.

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“…Earth hazard geosciences span the interface of the earth and human and social sciences. The former is generally concerned with an analysis of potentially hazardous events and processes such as earthquakes, tsunamis, droughts, bushfires, and so on, seeking to understand their causes, processes, distributions, frequencies, magnitudes, intensities, past histories, likely future occurrence, impacts, and effects (Arora and Malik 2017;Hyndman and Hyndman 2014;Nott 2016;Somerville 2014). Experts are interested in observing, measuring, monitoring, modelling, and forecasting these potentially hazardous events.…”

Section: Fig 1 Critical Debates About the Anthropocene And Reflectivmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hazards and disasters in the Anthropocene: some critical reflections for the future

Dominey‐Howes

2018

Geosci. Lett.

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The arrival of the Anthropocene presents many challenges-both theoretical and practical. Scholars in different disciplines, practitioners, the public and others, are all considering the meaning of the Anthropocene and how its arrival affects their ways of knowing and doing. Given that a dominant narrative of the Anthropocene is one of a coming crisis, hazard, and disaster experts from different disciplines have much to contribute. Here, I briefly summarize the trajectory of hazards' and disasters' research through to the present to provide the context to ask a series of critical questions that experts in hazard and disaster might address to make theoretical and practical contributions to making the Anthropocene as good as it might be. The questions considered are: how useful is the contemporary crisis narrative of the Anthropocene for understanding the planetary history of hazards and disasters, and coupled to this; is the modern language of disaster risk reduction useful for understanding past disasters; how do we give voice to the more-than-human experiences of Anthropocene disasters; is it possible to mitigate the impacts of future hazards and disasters within the Anthropocene without addressing the root causes of vulnerability; how do we make space for slow emergencies and what do slow emergencies mean for understanding hazard and disaster in the Anthropocene; and finally, does the scholarship of hazard and disaster provide evidence useful for informing the debate about an early or late-start for the Anthropocene?

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Synthetic versus long-term natural records of tropical cyclone storm surges: problems and issues

Cited by 4 publications

References 37 publications

Multivariate statistical modelling of the drivers of compound flood events in south Florida

Multivariate statistical modelling of the drivers of compound flood events in south Florida

Multivariate statistical modelling of the drivers of compound flood events in South Florida

Hazards and disasters in the Anthropocene: some critical reflections for the future

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