Using system dynamics to model the impact of policing activity on performance

Newsome, I M

doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602454

Cited by 15 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…This can be illustrated by a project for a police force in W. Yorkshire (UK) (Newsome 2008) who were concerned to understand better the complex interactions between resourcing particular forms of activity and overall results in terms of the crime level and crime detection. A high-level system dynamics model was developed to look at the three main forms of police activity -responsive crime detection, proactive investigation, and prevention and reassurance -and the effects of how much resource is put into each of the activities.…”

Section: Recent Developmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of the recent contribution of systems thinking to operational research and management science

Mingers

White

2010

European Journal of Operational Research

355

229

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The systems approach, or systems thinking, has been intimately connected with the development of OR and management science initially through the work of founders such as Churchman and Ackoff and latterly through innovations such as soft systems. In this paper we have undertaken a review of the contribution that systems thinking has been making more recently, especially to the practice of OR. Systems thinking is a discipline in its own right, with many theoretical and methodological developments, but it is also applicable to almost any problem area because of its generality, and so such a review must always be selective. We have looked at the literature from both a theoretical and an applications orientation. In the first part we consider the main systems theories and methodologies in terms of their recent developments and also their applications. This covers: the systems approach, complexity theory, cybernetics, system dynamics, soft OR and PSMs, critical systems and multimethodology. In the second part we review the main domains of application: strategy, information systems, organisations, production and operations, ecology and agriculture, and medicine and health. Our overall conclusion is that while systems may not be well established institutionally, in terms of academic departments, it is incredibly healthy in terms of the quantity and variety of its applications.

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Section: Recent Developmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of the recent contribution of systems thinking to operational research and management science

Mingers

White

2010

European Journal of Operational Research

355

229

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“…Ecology has been a popular application (Stave, 2002;Château et al, 2012) especially where public engagement is at stake. Messy public sector topics addressed using GMB principles include national shipping policy (Vennix, 1995), emergency services management (Luna-Reyes et al, 2004), criminal justice (Gil-Garcia and Pardo, 2006) and, policing themes (Newsome, 2008;Howick and Eden, 2011). Rouwette et al (2011) recognise the contribution modelling can make in translating messy issues into clearer problems, especially where participants have a rich stock of prior knowledge on the issues of concern.…”

Section: Group Model Buildingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Planning robust policing futures: modelling using multimethodology

Moizer

Carter

Liu

2015

Industrial Management &Amp; Data Systems

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Purpose -The resourcing of policing activity is characterised by a level of complexity, particularly where evaluating alternative policy options is concerned. In this paper, a case study using multimethodological modelling to compare alterative policy choice in a group context is outlined with respect to response-patrol officer deployment within a UK police force.Design/methodology/approach -The application of a three phase modelling process is illustrated where scenario planning is used to generate the scope of the system elements to be modelled. This is followed by causal mapping to identify the barriers to improving officer resourcing, and system dynamics modelling is used to simulate the impacts of a range of policy options within this policing function. A group model building approach was applied throughout the modelling phases with an expert group to negotiate a shared view of the structure and dynamics of the resourcing policy challenges.Findings -A fully validated system dynamics model emerged from the multi-phase modelling process which allowed a series of alternative future policy scenarios to be explored and evaluated. Useful policy insights were generated by the system dynamics simulation model which suggested more efficient rules for resource allocation in the police force's response-patrol officer function.Originality/value -The insights from this case study demonstrates that multi-phase modelling has potential application in policy exploration across a range of emergency service providers whose actions are governed by both variable demand and constrained supply of resource.

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“…Newsome () discusses how a U.K. police force has employed system dynamics modelling to examine linkages between actual policing activity and performance measurement of that activity. In this work, causal loop diagramming is used to characterise the complexity of interaction between the ring fencing of police resources and crime detection, resolution and deterrence.…”

Section: System Dynamics and Criminal Justice And Policingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At a national level, a vast range of policing performance data is available to police forces and government that allows comparative analysis between forces. Some forces have supplemented this information by modelling to improve performance management decision making (Newsome, ).…”

Section: Home Office Policing Initiativesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Simulating the impact of policy on patrol policing: introducing the emergency service incident model

Carter¹,

Moizer

2011

System Dynamics Review

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Detailed processes for emergency response work and demand and resource management can be recognisably modelled using system dynamics. The Emergency Service Incident Model (ESIM) successfully joins together the very short timescales associated with providing an emergency service to the public, to the far longer periods involved in planning for the recruitment and training of police patrol officers within Devon and Cornwall Police. A system dynamics model is presented which can help inform decisions on patrol officer staffing requirements. The impact of a range of policies can be studied to determine new and better ways to resolve the supply-demand equation that delivers frontline policing services to the public. A number of alternative policy interventions directed at improving police patrol officer incident resolution are highlighted in this study and related scenarios are tested. Results show that particular attention should be directed towards better management of the backlog of routine incidents.

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Using system dynamics to model the impact of policing activity on performance

Cited by 15 publications

References 4 publications

A review of the recent contribution of systems thinking to operational research and management science

A review of the recent contribution of systems thinking to operational research and management science

Planning robust policing futures: modelling using multimethodology

Simulating the impact of policy on patrol policing: introducing the emergency service incident model

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