Update and sensitivity analysis of the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

Hassan, Hany M.; Romanelli, Fabio; Panza, G. F.; Gabry, Mohamed El; Magrin, Andrea

doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2017.01.006

Cited by 31 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Consultant (1988) noticed little or no indication for nonlinear soil response for surface ground motion up to about 0.3 g. On the other hand, Wen et al (1995) stated that a threshold acceleration level beyond which there is an appreciable departure of the ground response from linear to non-linear prediction in geotechnical engineering is approximately 100-150 gal (0.1-0.15 g). Hence, Hassan et al (2017) and Sawires et al (2016a) mentioned that the estimated Peak Ground Acceleration on the rocks in the study area is 0.08 and 0.11 g, respectively. So, soil response of the investigated rocks there could be linear.…”

Section: Geotechnical Parameters Estimationsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Soil geotechnical characteristics for seismic risk mitigation at the southern extension of Marsa Alam city, Egypt

Fat-Helbary

El-Faragawy

Hamed

2019

NRIAG Journal of Astronomy and Geophysics

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The seismic hazard assessment for mitigating the seismic risk is an essential step before starting construction of a new settlement. One of the tools that could help in achieving this goal is the application of seismic refraction method for evaluating the geotechnical characteristics and dynamic properties of the soil deposits. Dynamic characteristics are fundamental for understanding the response of the soil under dynamic loading. Shallow refraction technique is in-situ test depends on the computation of seismic wave velocities which penetrating the soil. A total number of 88 compressional (P) and Shear wave (S) seismic refraction profiles have been conducted at the southern extension of Marsa Alam city on the Red Sea coast. The average Pand S-wave velocities were estimated for the subsurface layers consequently. Microzonation map for each layer was released by the spatial interpolation of data. In addition, the iso-thickness map was created for manifesting the soil thickness all over the studied area. Geotechnical parameters of the subsurface sediments were computed, as well as the zonation maps for density and Nvalue parameters have been created. The obtained maps emphasize that the first layer could be considered as foundation soil due to it is relatively stiffness.

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Section: Geotechnical Parameters Estimationsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Soil geotechnical characteristics for seismic risk mitigation at the southern extension of Marsa Alam city, Egypt

Fat-Helbary

El-Faragawy

Hamed

2019

NRIAG Journal of Astronomy and Geophysics

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“…These models are already used in many NDSHA applications worldwide: Bangladesh; China; Cuba; Egypt; India; Indonesia; Italy; Iran; Macedonia; Vietnam. (Al-Hussaini et al, 2017;Zhang et al, 2012;2013a;2013b;2014a;2014b;Gonzales et al, 2007;2012a;2012b;El-Sayed et al, 2001;Hassan et al, 2017;Irwandi 2017;Motaghi et al, 2015;Rastgoo et al, 2018;Brandmayr et al, 2010;Milkova et al, 2018;Cao et al, 2008b;Bisignano et al, 2011). The definition of seismic sources is based not only on available reliable parametric earthquake catalogues, including source focal mechanisms, but also, and equally important, on: (a) the identification of seismogenic zones per Meletti et al (2000); and (b) the identification of seismogenic nodes.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The lower bound for magnitude inside the seismogenic zones is M = 5, that also is conventionally (D"Amico et al, 1999) taken as the lower bound magnitude of damaging earthquakes; (b) the lower bound of earthquake magnitude within the seismogenic nodes is the magnitude threshold identified for that node by the morphostructural analysis (Gelfand et al, 1972); (c) the orientation of the double-couple point source is the one representative of the parent seismogenic zone or seismogenic node; (d) hypocentral depth, in fairly good agreement with existing literature, is taken as a discrete function of magnitude f (M) = (10 km for M < 7) (15 km for 7 ≤ M < 8) and (25 km for M ≥ 8). A quite complete description of the NDSHA methodology, including the joint use of earthquake sources within seismogenic zones and seismogenic nodes, can be found in , and its updates and validations in Panza et al (2012), Fasan et al (2016, Magrin et al (2016), Parvez et al (2017 and Hassan et al (2017). Specific 3D NDSHA applications can be found in La Mura et al (2011) and Panza et al (2013).…”

Section: "Information Is Not Knowledge -Albert Einsteinmentioning

confidence: 99%

NDSHA - The New Paradigm for RSHA - An Updated Review

Bela

Panza

2021

TCCKHVTD

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A New Paradigm (data driven and not like the currently model driven) is needed for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment RSHA. Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) integrates earthquake geology, earthquake science, and particularly earthquake physics to finally achieve a New (and needed) Paradigm for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment RSHA.Although observations from many recent destructive earthquakes have all confirmed the validity of NDSHA’s approach and application to earthquake hazard forecasting-nonetheless damaging earthquakes still cannot yet be predicted with a precision requirement consistent with issuing a red alert and evacuation order to protect civil populations. However, intermediate-term (time scale) and middle-range (space scale) predictions of main shocks above a pre-assigned threshold may be properly used for the implementation of low-key preventive safety actions, as recommended by UNESCO in 1997. Furthermore, a proper integration of both seismological and geodetic information has been shown to also reliably contribute to a reduction of the geographic extent of alarms and it therefore defines a New Paradigm for TimeDependent Hazard Scenarios: Intermediate-Term (time scale) and Narrow-Range (space scale) Earthquake Prediction.

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“…Caputo et al, 1973;Molchan et al, 1997;Doglioni et al, 2015). A complete description of the NDSHA methodology can be found in Panza et al (2001) and its updates and validations in Panza et al (2012), Fasan et al (2016), Magrin et al (2016), Fasan (2017) and Hassan et al (2017). In addition, NDSHA permits, if really necessary, to account for earthquake occurrence rate (Peresan et al, 2013 and references therein;Peresan et al, 2014;Magrin et al, 2017).…”

Section: Proceedings International Conference On Disastermentioning

confidence: 99%