NDSHA: A new paradigm for reliable seismic hazard assessment

NDSHA - The New Paradigm for RSHA - An Updated Review

“…The procedure for the Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment NDSHA (Panza et al, 1996;2001;Panza, 2017;Panza and Bela, 2019) is based on the computation of realistic and physics-based synthetic seismograms (earthquake scenarios) -and the end products of NDSHA are therefore synthetic ground motion accelero-grams, veloci-grams and displacement-grams. In NDSHA, seismic hazard is defined as "the envelope of the values of earthquake ground motion parameters": (a) considering a wide set of scenario events (including Maximum Credible Earthquakes MCE); and…”

“…In fact, there has always been clear evidence from the time it was authoratively first proposed that PSHA is wrong (Panza and Bela, 2019), but particularly within this past decade -with our benefit finally (calendarwise) now of true 2020 hindsight! (Wyss et al, 2012;Bela 2014;Mulargia et al, 2017;Stark and Freedman, 2016;Stark, 2017;Rugarli et al, 2019a) -we can say for certain that PSHA"s "technological inexactitudes", which unfortunately make up its body of knowledge, cannot ever reliably fulfill on either their presumptions or their promises!…”

“…5). DGA estimation has been validated in many instances: both regionally and at regional and local scale (See Fasan et al, 2016;Panza, 2017;Parvez et al, 2017;De Natale et al, 2019;Panza, 2020).…”

“…Since PSHA is false, it is not falsifiable and it cannot be tested! A detailed review of the traditional PSHA method (see Supplementary material in Panza and Bela, 2019) revealed that the method itself is inadequate to describe the physical process of earthquake occurrence, because of its built-in and required assumption of a "memoryless" stochastic process, or Poisson process. (e.g., Ferraes, 1967.…”

“…A detailed description of the development and evolution of NDSHA methodologies during these last two decades has been previously published in Panza and Bela (2019) and Supplementary material therein. This paper now presents both a critical updating of that previous work, which comprehensively also includes as illustration -"A Bibliographic Journey to a New Paradigm" -(7) (PDF) Supplementary material for "NDSHA: A new paradigm for reliable seismic hazard assessment"/Giuliano Panza -Academia.edu -as well as a focused orientation on how we can better keep alert for the "safety of human lives" -by also more selectively basing our efforts on reliable seismic hazard assessment methods, as are available in NDSHA.…”