NDSHA - The New Paradigm for RSHA - An Updated Review

Abstract

A New Paradigm (data driven and not like the currently model driven) is needed for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment RSHA. Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) integrates earthquake geology, earthquake science, and particularly earthquake physics to finally achieve a New (and needed) Paradigm for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment RSHA.Although observations from many recent destructive earthquakes have all confirmed the validity of NDSHA’s approach and application to earthquake hazard forecasting-nonetheless damaging earthquakes still cannot yet be predicted with a precision requirement consistent with issuing a red alert and evacuation order to protect civil populations. However, intermediate-term (time scale) and middle-range (space scale) predictions of main shocks above a pre-assigned threshold may be properly used for the implementation of low-key preventive safety actions, as recommended by UNESCO in 1997. Furthermore, a proper integration of both seismological and geodetic information has been shown to also reliably contribute to a reduction of the geographic extent of alarms and it therefore defines a New Paradigm for TimeDependent Hazard Scenarios: Intermediate-Term (time scale) and Narrow-Range (space scale) Earthquake Prediction.

Next-Generation EEW Empowered by NDSHA: From Concept to Implementation

“…The history and detailed technical description of NDSHA has been reviewed in several publications, e.g., [32,43,44,51,53,54]. The Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) originated in 1996 [55], and was seen as a response to several drawbacks of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) widely used in the world [49].…”

“…Different from standard PSHA and classical DSHA [56], NDSHA does not rely on the use of empirical attenuation relations and a limited set of scenario earthquakes, but starts from basic physics and takes into consideration the mechanical properties of earthquake sources and pathways to compute realistic synthetic seismograms and to depict the hazard level at the sites of interest (e.g., [32]). Since 1996, the neo-deterministic approach has undergone several rehearsals and improvements (e.g., [32,43,44,51,53,57,58]). It has been developed as a comprehensive multi-disciplinary approach for performing multi scenario-based seismic hazard computations based on all available geophysical-geological-tectonic information, and could be applied from national to local scale [33].…”

Seismic Rigoletto: Hazards, risks and seismic roulette applications

“…The Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) methodology (Fäh et al, 1993;Panza et al, 2012;Peresan et al, 2012a;Bela and Panza, 2021;Panza and Bela, 2020 and references therein) has demonstrated its abilities to serve as the Standard Method for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment (RSHA). NDSHA, proposed some 20 years ago (Panza et al, 1996;, has proven to both reliably and realistically simulate comprehensive sets of hazardous earthquake ground motions throughout many regions worldwide.…”

Seismic roulette: Hazards and risks

“…The NDSHA methodology (Bela & Panza, 2021;Fäh et al, 1993;Panza et al, 2012;Panza & Bela, 2020;Peresan et al, 2012) demonstrates its ability to serve as the standard method for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment (RSHA). NDSHA method, proposed some 20 years ago (Panza et al, 1996;, has proven to both reliably and realistically simulate comprehensive sets of hazardous earthquake ground motions in many regions worldwide.…”

“…We believe that PSHA is not "the natural phenomenon itself," and also, per "Cargo-cult statistics and scientific crisis" (Stark & Saltelli, 2018) that the underlying problem of a widespread pandemic-like scientific crisis in many disciplines collaboratively involved in SHA lies squarely in the misuse of Statistics far beyond the possibilities of its applications (as in the abovementioned GSHAP, STEP, GEM models) due to: (i) superficial education regarding "initial basic principles"; (ii) lots of mechanical application of available software and (iii) the questionable editorial policies of some scientific journals (see Bela & Panza, 2021;Stark, 2018;Stark & Saltelli, 2018).…”