Unpredictability as doctrine: Reconceptualising foreign policy strategy in the Trump era

Bentley, Michelle; David, Maxine

doi:10.1080/09557571.2021.1877616

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…'[T]his parallel', Boys writes, 'is flawed and based on a misperception regarding the intellectual grasp of the concept as advanced by President Trump and his foreign policy advisors' (Boys 2021, 16). In this sense, Boys' conclusions align with those of Hassan and Featherstone (2021), as well as, to a certain degree, Bentley and David (2021); they connect Trump's unpredictability to his erratic character.…”

Section: Historical Precedent In Nixon's 'Madman Doctrine'mentioning

confidence: 67%

“…As both a concept and as a type of real political behaviour potentially enshrined in doctrine-construction, unpredictability creates an acute tension with existing ideas of how the world works. This is especially true given the tendency for IR scholars to search for a sense of conventional rationality in what actors do, even for those who do not ascribe to realist modes of thinking (Bentley and David 2021). Within this disciplinary context, the very idea of unpredictability can be a frightening proposition-but those unable to theoretically adapt in order to comprehend it are most susceptible to being bullied by the likes of people like Trump.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Introduction: Trump and unpredictability in international relations

Bentley

Lerner

2021

Cambridge Review of International Affairs

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This article introduces the special issue on Trump and unpredictability in international relations. It analyses each of the contributions to the special issue in turn, as they appear in the running order, while also elaborating on the intellectual and political context for the special issue as a whole. Paralleling the special issue, this introduction begins by setting out the problem of understanding the very notion of unpredictability itself as a general concept; turns to unpacking that theoretical complexity in more empirical terms by questioning how we can understand unpredictability in relation to Trump's foreign policy; explores the contestation of that understanding by analysing alternative explanations for unpredictability and whether this constitutes doctrine; then delves more deeply into the specific notion of Madman theory, which comprises a critical and highly prominent sub-section of the unpredictability debate; and culminates in a more expansive focus on the impact of unpredictability as Trump's foreign policy approach, specifically in relation to China.We first approached the editors of the Cambridge Review of International Affairs with the outlines of a special issue in October 2019. By that point, Trump had served nearly three years of his four-year termand political scientists, pundits, and journalists had grown accustomed to living in a world where any moment their phones could buzz with news of a bizarre tweet that could create a potential foreign policy crisis. It was now widely recognised that the Commander-in-Chief was erratic compared to his predecessors and conventional expectations of presidential behaviour. Analysts even began talking about Trump's unpredictable activity as a method of foreign policy doctrinemore specifically, the 'doctrine of unpredictability' (Fuchs 2017). The president's supporters and defenders argued that this approach could shake up international politics for the better, forcing allies to stop taking American leadership and largess for granted (Krauthammer 2017). Detractors claimed it would lead to chaos, destabilize key relationships, and ultimately disrupt the American-led liberal international order (Nedal and Nexon 2017; Saletan 2016).

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Section: Historical Precedent In Nixon's 'Madman Doctrine'mentioning

confidence: 67%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Introduction: Trump and unpredictability in international relations

Bentley

Lerner

2021

Cambridge Review of International Affairs

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“…То је разумљиво кад знамо да је Трамп "мислилац шире слике", који је током претходног мандата презирао детаље и доследност, па и кохерентност у спољној политици (Ruge and Shapiro 2023). Зато има и оних који "предвидљиву непредвидљивост" бившег републиканског председника покушавају да представе као доктринарни приступ, премда не у класичном поимању доктрине као такве, сугеришући да класични начини сагледавања и спољнополитичке анализе можда више нису прикладни промењеном времену и околностима (Bentley and David 2021). Иако би сада дата оцена о Трамповом спољнополитичком приступу у другом мандату била неизбежно непотпуна имајући у виду још увек рану фазу изборне кампање, свестан да није спровео у дело све оно што је Американцима претходно обећавао, Трамп је поново кривицу пребацио на "дубоку државу" и америчку бирократију.…”

Section: спољна политика доналда трампа и џозефа бајденаunclassified

Председнички Избори У Сједињеним Америчким Државама 2024. Године И Будућност Америчке Улоге У Међународном Поретку

Јовановић

2024

Перспективе Политичких Наука У Савременом Друштву

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“…Interestingly, these were several of the ideas by which many analysts characterised Trump's foreign policy doctrine, also described as "chaotic" (Jervis et al 2018), "incoherent" (Deyermond 2023), "imprudent", and "incompetent" (Drezner 2020). The inquiry into the existence of a Trump doctrine or a coherent conceptual framework guiding Trump's foreign policy has been a subject of debate (Friedman and Zenko 2017;Ettinger 2020;Bentley and David 2021).…”

Section: A Chaotic and Nationalist Foreign Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Dynamics of Change in United States Foreign Policy: Contexts, Leadership, and Hegemonic Legitimacy

Mendes

2023

Social Sciences

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This article examines the dialectical relationship between continuity and change in the foreign policy of the United States, a hegemonic power. The article begins by exploring the agent–structure problem and the factors that affect changes in foreign policy and the legitimacy of hegemony. It compares the hegemonic leadership styles of three former United States Presidents: George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump. The article aims to contrast the foreign policy approaches of the three presidents and present two main arguments. In order to gain a comprehensive understanding of foreign policy, it is imperative to analyse dynamic components such as contextual factors and leadership. This includes the leaders’ worldviews and their ability to adapt to unanticipated crises. The gradual decline of the United States’ hegemony in the international order can be attributed to structural transformations within the international order and the erosion of its social capital and its role as hegemon. Yet, the leadership styles adopted by American presidents have a significant impact on the erosion of the nation’s hegemonic leadership.

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Unpredictability as doctrine: Reconceptualising foreign policy strategy in the Trump era

Cited by 9 publications

References 27 publications

Introduction: Trump and unpredictability in international relations

Introduction: Trump and unpredictability in international relations

Председнички Избори У Сједињеним Америчким Државама 2024. Године И Будућност Америчке Улоге У Међународном Поретку

The Dynamics of Change in United States Foreign Policy: Contexts, Leadership, and Hegemonic Legitimacy

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