Understanding trajectories of population decline across rural and urban Europe: A sequence analysis

Abstract

Population decline is projected to become widespread in Europe, with the continental population set to reverse its longstanding trajectory of growth within the next 5 years. This represents unfamiliar demographic territory. Despite this, literature on decline remains sparse and our understanding porous. Particular epistemological deficiencies stem from a lack of both cross-national and temporal analyses of population decline. This study seeks to address these gaps through the novel application of sequence and cluster analysis techniques to examine variations in population decline trajectories since 2000 in 696 subnational areas across 33 European territories. The methodology allows for a holistic understanding of decline trajectories capturing differences in the ordering, timing, magnitude and spatial structure of population decline. We identify a typology of population decline distinguishing seven distinct pathways to depopulation and chart their geographies. Results revealed differentiated pathways of depopulation in continental subregions, with consistent and rapid declines in the east, persistent but moderate declines in central Europe, accelerating declines in the south and decelerating population declines in the west. Results also revealed differentiated patterns of depopulation across the rural-urban continuum, with urban and populous areas experiencing a deceleration in population decline, while decline accelerates or stabilises in rural areas. Small-and midsized areas displayed heterogeneous depopulation trajectories, highlighting the importance of local contextual factors in influencing trajectories of population decline.

Uneven geographies: ageing and population dynamics in Latvia

“…The exception is the easternmost Latgale region, which has experienced depopulation over the past two decades. Population decline is set to overtake population growth and, alongside regionally uneven ageing patterns, become the primary trend of population dynamics in most European countries (Kashnitsky & Aburto, 2020; Newsham & Rowe, 2022).…”

Neighbourhood effects and determinants of population changes in Italy: A spatial perspective

“…However, the level of population decline is not uniform across territories (i.e., it is spatially biased), as there are noteworthy differences in the rates and the directions of population change both between countries and between regions and small areas within each country. These diverging trends are expected to continue into the future, which will likely exacerbate current regional and national demographic inequalities (Newsham and Rowe, 2022), thereby reinforcing the idea that dual spatial demographic contexts are detrimental to the construction of a cohesive society (Lobao and Saenz, 2002). All demographic phenomena in Europe, including fertility, are highly heterogeneous at the subnational level.…”

“…Additionally, they found an increase of agglomerations in the urbanisation stage, which has led to an obvious trend towards reurbanisation and urbanisation occurring in parallel. The persistence of a sharp rural-urban dichotomy in research on population decline compounds the problem of a lack of large-scale studies on the topic, as most of the previous research on this issue has consisted of small-scale case studies that provided highly specific accounts of localised population declines (Newsham and Rowe, 2022). Although the urban-rural pattern (in which the urban areas gain population due to people leaving rural areas) is dominant, some studies have noted that not all rural areas are declining at the same pace (Bryden and Munro, 2000).…”

“…Most previous studies on population decline concentrated on the levels of depopulation or on the consequences of the process, while failing to acknowledge the process through which decline unfolds (Newsham and Rowe, 2022) and the determinants of that process. Regardless of the territorial scale at which population decline is observed, it is clear that it can be caused by a wide variety of factors (Elshof et al, 2014).…”

Understanding Population Decline Trajectories in Spain using Sequence Analysis

“…Previous work has thus provided valuable insights into the contemporary geography of population decline and its potential consequences. However, less is known about the different long-term trajectories of population change leading to depopulation, how they differ in space and their underpinning factors (Newsham and Rowe 2022).…”