Uneven geographies: ageing and population dynamics in Latvia

Abstract

The twin phenomena of ageing populations and declining populations are profoundly transforming societies and economies in Europe. Driven by decreasing fertility rates and the continuing increased life expectancy, populations have not been ageing uniformly across time and space. In an increasingly urbanized world, the spatial distribution of the young and the elderly is a matter of growing scholarly and policy interest. In Europe, this process is more pronounced in peripheral areas than in the core regions, while the development of metropolitan areas is associated with suburbanization predominantly driven by young in‐migrants. Latvia is an interesting case study for studying population ageing and its spatial imbalances due to the key role of emigration in population decline and ageing. By employing descriptive and spatial analysis, this study uses data from the Latvian census and population register to explore the relationships between population change and ageing processes. Global Moran's I and the local indicators of spatial association were used to identify spatial systems. The study confirmed global and local spatial autocorrelation for the both examined age variables. Using the Getis‐Ord Gi* method identified spatial clusters of the young and the elderly. We found more pronounced residential clustering of the elderly aged 75 and over in the depopulating region of Latgale, whereas the Riga metropolitan region and areas around the largest towns tend to cluster young residents.

Human Capital at the Regional Level: Population Forecast Insights into Latvia from a Long-Term Perspective

“…Considering that human capital has a significant impact on economic development (Štāle et al, 2016), regional development strategies must address the socio-economic factors that stimulate emigration. Studies pay special attention to declining population trends in Latvia (Krisjane et al, 2023), which are attributed to emigration for socio-economic reasons and low fertility rates. Increased population rates are only observed in suburbs of the capital city region, including in-migration from cities and rural areas (Krisjane et al, 2023).…”

“…Studies pay special attention to declining population trends in Latvia (Krisjane et al, 2023), which are attributed to emigration for socio-economic reasons and low fertility rates. Increased population rates are only observed in suburbs of the capital city region, including in-migration from cities and rural areas (Krisjane et al, 2023). Socio-economic and demographic issues in regions generate simultaneous decrease in youth populations and increased elderly populations (Krisjane et al, 2023).…”

“…Increased population rates are only observed in suburbs of the capital city region, including in-migration from cities and rural areas (Krisjane et al, 2023). Socio-economic and demographic issues in regions generate simultaneous decrease in youth populations and increased elderly populations (Krisjane et al, 2023).…”

“…Cuadrado-Roura (2023) indicates possible risks to regions' sustainable development and economic activity due to imbalanced demographic structure. A particularly unfavourable circumstance is the Latgale region, where an overall long-term population decline has occurred (Krisjane et al, 2023). Researchers investigating population change record similar tendencies for elderly populations to increase in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, while youth populations only increase in metropolitan areas (Krisjane et al, 2023).…”

“…Notably, this phenomenon is not exclusive to regional development in Latvia. Many European countries are experiencing depopulation trends, particularly in rural areas (Cuadrado-Roura 2023; Krisjane et al, 2023). Returning migrants may contribute to regional human capital development through experience gained abroad (Apsite-Berina et al, 2019); however, return migration may also contribute to increasing regional socio-economic gaps in Latvia.…”