Understanding Population Decline Trajectories in Spain using Sequence Analysis

Abstract

Population decline is a key contemporary demography challenge. Previous work has measured the national extent of population decline, and we know that it is more acute in Japan and Eastern Europe and is set to accelerate across many industrialized countries. Yet, little is known about the population trajectories leading to current trends of depopulation and their underpinning demographic and contextual factors. To address this gap, we aim to identify and characterize the different trajectories of depopulation in Spain from 2000 to 2020 at the small area level using sequence analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, decomposition techniques, and multinomial logistic modeling. We show that while Spain recorded an overall 17.2% national population growth between 2000 and 2020, 63% of municipalities experienced depopulation. We identify six trajectories of population decline, with a well-defined northwest-south divide. These trajectories include mostly rural municipalities, but also certain small-and medium-sized cities. Natural decline comprises the main demographic component underpinning differences in the extent of depopulation across trajectories, and international migration plays an important role in explaining transitions to decline since the financial crisis of 2008. Small and old populations, and, to a lesser extent, remoteness from cities are key features characterizing areas of high decline.

Despoblación y medio ambiente: una aproximación a las narrativas desde medios de comunicación valencianos

“…En este sentido, cabe mencionar la importancia de la comunicación y la accesibilidad en las zonas rurales, así como la orografía y la altitud, ya que son factores que pueden a favor de la despoblación (González-Leonardo et al, 2023) y, por lo tanto, la población de mayor edad que vive en pequeñas zonas rurales tiende a trasladarse a comunidades más grandes (Scott et al, 2019). Otro factor que juega un papel fundamental es la disponibilidad de una vivienda en condiciones, poco habitual en el medio rural y que, por tanto, dificulta la llegada y establecimiento de nueva población (Verma y Taegen, 2019).…”

The patterns of depopulation in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Spatial autocorrelation analysis

“…Previous research on depopulation processes in the world indicates that Europe is facing intensive population decline (Newsham and Rowe, 2022), and especially in countries in Southern and Eastern Europe (Pantić, 2019). However, depopulation is a demographic process characterized by spatial or territorial disparities (González-Leonardo et al, 2023). Depopulation varies across the area of a country and is more common in peripheral rural areas (González-Leonardo et al, 2023;Johnson and Lichter, 2019;Viñas, 2019).…”

“…However, depopulation is a demographic process characterized by spatial or territorial disparities (González-Leonardo et al, 2023). Depopulation varies across the area of a country and is more common in peripheral rural areas (González-Leonardo et al, 2023;Johnson and Lichter, 2019;Viñas, 2019). However, it can also affect urban regions in countries with intensive emigration across national borders (Bērziņš and Zvidriņš, 2011).…”

“…Since many countries in the world are facing population decline, numerous studies that cover the issue of population decline have been conducted in recent years. For example, Benassi et al (2023) and Reynaud & Miccoli (2018) investigated the effects and determinants of population changes in Italy, Gil-Alonso et al (2023) and González-Leonardo et al (2023) characteristics of depopulation processes in Spain, Truskolaski and Bugowski (2022) determinants and causes of depopulation in Eastern and Central Europe, Czibere et al (2021) trends and causes of depopulation in Hungary and Poland, Živanović et al (2022) and Pantić (2019) characteristics of population change in Serbia, Čipin and Ilieva (2017) population decline in Croatia and Bulgaria, etc. Bosnia and Herzegovina, as a south European country, is not an exception in terms of depopulation processes.…”