Understanding precipitation characteristics of Afghanistan at provincial scale

Abstract

This study examines the pattern and trend of seasonal and annual precipitation along with extreme precipitation events in a data scare, south Asian country, Afghanistan. Seven extreme precipitation indices were considered based upon intensity, duration and frequency of precipitation events. The study revealed that precipitation pattern of Afghanistan is unevenly distributed at seasonal and yearly scales. Southern and Southwestern provinces remain significantly dry whereas, the Northern and Northeastern provinces receive comparatively higher precipitation. Spring and winter seasons bring about 80% of yearly precipitation in Afghanistan.However, a notable declining precipitation trend was observed in these two seasons. An increasing trend in precipitation was observed for the summer and autumn seasons, however; these seasons are the lean periods for precipitation. A declining annual precipitation trend was also revealed in many provinces of Afghanistan. Analysis of extreme precipitation indices reveals a general drier condition in Afghanistan. Large spatial variability was found in precipitation indices. In many provinces of Afghanistan, a significantly declining trends were observed in intensity-based (Rx1-day, RX5-day, SDII and R95p) and frequency-based (R10) precipitation indices. The duration-based precipitation indices (CDD and CWD) also infer a general drier climatic condition in Afghanistan. This study will assist the agriculture and allied sectors to take well-planned adaptive measures in dealing with the changing patterns of precipitation, and additionally, facilitating future studies for Afghanistan.

Spatiotemporal changes in future precipitation of Afghanistan for shared socioeconomic pathways

“…The study undertaken in Afghanistan about climate change projections for adaptation planning and economic development has been restricted, as indicated by studies conducted by Refs. [ 26 , [31] , [32] , [33] , [34] , [35] ].…”

“…Most prior studies have utilized the CMIP5 model to conduct climate projections in Afghanistan for RCPs. Several recent studies have employed the CMIP6 model to carry out climate projections for Afghanistan's SSPs [ [33] , [34] , [35] ]. However, the scope of these investigations was quite narrow.…”