Change in Temperature Extremes over India Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Targets

Maurya, Hardeep Kumar; Joshi, Nitin; Swami, Deepak; Suryavanshi, Shakti

doi:10.1007/s00704-023-04367-7

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 89 publications

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“…Agriculture is one of the most climate-dependent areas of the economy. In many regions of the planet [49][50][51][52][53], as in the Republic of Bashkortostan, there is a simultaneous increase in air temperature and aridity, which negatively affects crop yields. A study [54] shows that high temperatures have a negative impact on the production of corn and wheat in North America.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Changes in Agroclimatic Resources of the Republic of Bashkortostan (Russia) under the Context of Global Warming

Kamalova,

Bogdan,

Belan

et al. 2024

Climate

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The process of climate warming significantly affects agroclimatic resources and agricultural production. We study the agroclimatic resources and their variability on the territory of the Republic of Bashkortostan (Russia). The Bashkortostan has a high agricultural potential and holds a leading position in the country in the production of grain crops, potatoes, milk, and honey. Currently, no detailed studies have been conducted for this area to assess the effects of global climate change on agro-climatic resources. World experience shows such research becomes strategically important for regions with powerful agricultural production. We used the sums of average daily air temperatures above 0 and 10 °C, the G.T. Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient, and the Ped aridity (humidification) index as agroclimatic indicators. We used data of long-term meteorological observations of 30 meteorological stations for the period of 1961–2020. We revealed the long-term dynamics of the agroclimatic indicators and the spatial and temporal regularities in their distribution on the territory of Bashkortostan. There is a steady increase in the sums of average daily air temperatures above 0 and 10 °C. Against this background, aridity increases, which is especially manifested in the southern parts of the Republic of Bashkortostan. We assessed the impact of agroclimatic indicators on the main types of agricultural crops in the republic. We revealed that the greatest positive impact on the yield of oilseeds, cereals, and industrial crops is made by precipitation at the beginning (r = 0.50, r = 0.44, and r = 0.52, respectively) and in the middle of the growing season (r = 0.55, r = 0.76, and r = 0.51, respectively). Temperature and precipitation during the growing season have a complex effect on cereals. This is proven by correlations with HCS and the Ped index (r = 0.45 and r = −0.56, respectively). Aridity at the beginning of the growing season affects the yield of oilseeds and potatoes. This is confirmed by correlations with the Ped index (r = −0.49 and r = −0.52, respectively). In general, the aridity of the growing season has a significant impact on the yield of cereals (r = −0.57). Negative relationships have been found between the air temperature growing season and the yield of potatoes (r = −0.50) and cereals (r = −0.53). The results of the study were compared with data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service database. We identified climate trends under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 scenarios. These scenarios should be taken into account when developing plans for the adaptation of agriculture in the Republic of Bashkortostan to changes in the regional climate. Maximum decrease in precipitation is established for the RCP 6.0 scenario. This can have an extremely negative impact on crop yields. This problem is especially relevant for the southern part of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The information presented in the study will allow for a more effective adaptation of the agricultural sector to current and future climate changes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Changes in Agroclimatic Resources of the Republic of Bashkortostan (Russia) under the Context of Global Warming

Kamalova,

Bogdan,

Belan

et al. 2024

Climate

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“…Numerous studies have examined climatic variables in India, aiding in constructing future climate scenarios [4][5][6][7][8]. Trend analyses of precipitation are valuable for understanding the impact of climate change on water resources.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Precipitation Trends in Six Districts of the Ken River Basin of Bundelkhand Region, India

Dwivedi,

Mishra,

Pandey

et al. 2024

IJECC

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The future development and sustainable management of water resources will be greatly influenced by the trend analysis of precipitation. This paper focuses on the analysis of rainfall trends in the Bundelkhand region, particularly in six districts covering the Ken basin. Mann-Kendall test was employed to identify potential trends, and the Sen’s slope estimator was utilized to quantify the magnitude of change during 1990 to 2020. Given that a significant portion of rainfall occurs during the southwest monsoon season, the study included both seasonal (monsoon) and annual analyses. The findings indicated a decreasing trend in precipitation for both the monsoon season and the annual scale, although many districts exhibited insignificant trends. The outcomes of this study offer valuable insights for agriculture, related sectors, and contribute to the food and energy security considerations for the six districts in the Bundelkhand region and regions with similar physiography.

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Projected changes in the heatwave’s characteristics and associated population exposure over India under 1.5–3 °C warming levels

Maurya,

Joshi,

Suryavanshi

2024

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Change in Temperature Extremes over India Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Targets

Cited by 6 publications

References 89 publications

Assessment of Changes in Agroclimatic Resources of the Republic of Bashkortostan (Russia) under the Context of Global Warming

Assessment of Changes in Agroclimatic Resources of the Republic of Bashkortostan (Russia) under the Context of Global Warming

Recent Precipitation Trends in Six Districts of the Ken River Basin of Bundelkhand Region, India

Projected changes in the heatwave’s characteristics and associated population exposure over India under 1.5–3 °C warming levels

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