Uncertainty assessment for the seismic hazard map of Spain

Gaspar‐Escribano, Jorge M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; Parra, Humberto; Cabañas, Luis; Benito, B.; Barajas, Sandra Ruiz; Solares, José Manuel Martínez

doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.10.001

Cited by 26 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…for Switzerland the model SUIhaz2015 (Wiemer et al 2016), Spain (IGN-UPM Working Group 2013; Gaspar-Escribano et al 2015), Portugal (Carvalho and Albarello 2016), Iceland , Turkey (Sesetyan et al 2016) or are just under preparation, e.g. in Italy (Meletti et al 2016), Belgium (indicated in Vanneste et al 2014), in Norway (C. Lindholm, pers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany—version 2016, considering the range of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variability

Grünthal

Stromeyer

Bosse

et al. 2018

Bull Earthquake Eng

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The basic seismic load parameters for the upcoming national design regulation for DIN EN 1998-1/NA result from the reassessment of the seismic hazard supported by the German Institution for Civil Engineering (DIBt). This 2016 version of the national seismic hazard assessment for Germany is based on a comprehensive involvement of all accessible uncertainties in models and parameters and includes the provision of a rational framework for integrating ranges of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities in a comprehensive and transparent way. The developed seismic hazard model incorporates significant improvements over previous versions. It is based on updated and extended databases, it includes robust methods to evolve sets of models representing epistemic uncertainties, and a selection of the latest generation of ground motion prediction equations. The new earthquake model is presented here, which consists of a logic tree with 4040 end branches and essential innovations employed for a realistic approach. The output specifications were designed according to the user oriented needs as suggested by two review teams supervising the entire project. Seismic load parameters, for rock conditions of v S30 = 800 m/s, are calculated for three hazard levels (10, 5 and 2% probability of occurrence or exceedance within 50 years) and delivered in the form of uniform hazard spectra, within the spectral period range 0.02-3 s, and seismic hazard maps for peak

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany—version 2016, considering the range of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variability

Grünthal

Stromeyer

Bosse

et al. 2018

Bull Earthquake Eng

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show abstract

“…In addition, for the purposes of hazard calculations, the distribution of seismic potential for the entire magnitude interval (between the M min and the M max values expected for each source) requires and is dependent on the selected recurrence models to represent fault and zone activities. In this regard, different types of recurrence models may be used: modified Gutenberg-Richter, truncated Gutenberg-Richter (Gutenberg and Richter, 1944), or the models proposed by Main and Burton (1981), Chinnery and North (1975) and others. The use of one model versus another depends on each application and on the available data.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This catalogue contains 1,496 earthquakes, with magnitudes ranging from 4.0 to 6.6. The uncertainty assessment of the catalogue used in this study is explained in Gaspar-Escribano et al (2015). According to the completeness analysis, a M MaxC of 5.9 is estimated for SE Spain (although not every region reaches this maximum-magnitude value).…”

Section: Source Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Approach for combining fault and area sources in seismic hazard assessment: application in south-eastern Spain

Rivas-Medina

Benito

Gaspar‐Escribano

2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper presents a methodological approach to seismic hazard assessment based on a hybrid source model composed of faults as independent entities and zones containing residual seismicity. The seismic potential of both types of sources is derived from different data: for the zones, the recurrence model is estimated from the seismic catalogue. For fault sources, it is inferred from slip rates derived from palaeoseismicity and GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) measurements. Distributing the seismic potential associated with each source is a key question when considering hybrid zone and fault models, and this is normally resolved using one of two possible alternatives: (1) considering a characteristic earthquake model for the fault and assigning the remaining magnitudes to the zone, or (2) establishing a cut-off magnitude, Mc, above which the seisms are assigned to the fault and below which they are considered to have occurred in the zone. This paper presents an approach to distributing seismic potential between zones and faults without restricting the magnitudes for each type of source, precluding the need to establish cut-off Mc values beforehand. This is the essential difference between our approach and other approaches that have been applied previously. The proposed approach is applied in southern Spain, a region of low-to-moderate seismicity where faults move slowly. The results obtained are contrasted with the results of a seismic hazard method based exclusively on the zone model. Using the hybrid approach, acceleration values show a concentration of expected accelerations around fault traces, which is not appreciated in the classic approach using only zones.

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“…It contains 1496 earthquakes, with magnitudes ranging from 4.0 to 6.6. The uncertainty assessment of the catalog is explained in Gaspar-Escribano et al (2015). A M MaxC is estimated in 5.9 for SE Spain (although not all the regions reach this maximum magnitude value).…”

Section: Sources Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Approach for combining faults and area sources in seismic hazard assessment: Application in southeastern Spain

Rivas-Medina¹,

Benito²,

Gaspar‐Escribano³

2018

Preprint

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Abstract. This paper presents a methodological approach for seismic hazard assessment that considers a hybrid source model composed by faults as independent entities and zones (containing the residual seismicity). The seismic potential of both types of sources is derived from different data: for the zones, the recurrence model is estimated from the seismic 10 catalog. For fault sources, it is inferred from kinematic parameters derived from paleoseismicty and GNSS measurements.Distributing the seismic potential associated to each source is a key question when considering hybrid models of zone and faults, which some authors solve by assigning to the fault only the earthquakes that exceed a fixed magnitude value Mc. In the present approach, instead of restricting the magnitudes of each type of source, the distribution of seismic potential is carried out only for magnitudes below the maximum magnitude value completely recorded in the catalog (Mmaxc). This is 15 derived from a completeness analysis and can be lower than the Mmax generated by the faults, taking into account that their the recurrence period can be higher than the observation period of the catalog.The proposed approach is applied in southern Spain, a region of low-to-moderate seismic where faults move slowly. The results obtained are contrasted with the results of a seismic hazard model using the traditional zone model exclusively.Results show a concentration of expected accelerations around fault traces using the hybrid approach, which is not 20 appreciated in the classic approach using zones exclusively.

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Uncertainty assessment for the seismic hazard map of Spain

Cited by 26 publications

References 14 publications

The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany—version 2016, considering the range of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variability

The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany—version 2016, considering the range of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variability

Approach for combining fault and area sources in seismic hazard assessment: application in south-eastern Spain

Approach for combining faults and area sources in seismic hazard assessment: Application in southeastern Spain

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