Abstract. This paper presents a methodological approach to seismic hazard assessment based on a hybrid source model composed of faults as independent entities and zones containing residual seismicity. The seismic potential of both types of sources is derived from different data: for the zones, the recurrence model is estimated from the seismic catalogue. For fault sources, it is inferred from slip rates derived from palaeoseismicity and GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) measurements. Distributing the seismic potential associated with each source is a key question when considering hybrid zone and fault models, and this is normally resolved using one of two possible alternatives: (1) considering a characteristic earthquake model for the fault and assigning the remaining magnitudes to the zone, or (2) establishing a cut-off magnitude, Mc, above which the seisms are assigned to the fault and below which they are considered to have occurred in the zone. This paper presents an approach to distributing seismic potential between zones and faults without restricting the magnitudes for each type of source, precluding the need to establish cut-off Mc values beforehand. This is the essential difference between our approach and other approaches that have been applied previously. The proposed approach is applied in southern Spain, a region of low-to-moderate seismicity where faults move slowly. The results obtained are contrasted with the results of a seismic hazard method based exclusively on the zone model. Using the hybrid approach, acceleration values show a concentration of expected accelerations around fault traces, which is not appreciated in the classic approach using only zones.
A damage scenario modelling is developed and compared with the damage distribution observed after the 2011 Lorca earthquake. The strong ground motion models considered include five modern ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) amply used worldwide. Capacity and fragility curves from the Risk-UE project are utilized to model building vulnerability and expected damage. Damage estimates resulting from different combinations of GMPE and capacity/fragility curves are compared with the actual damage scenario, establishing the combination that best explains the observed damage distribution. In addition, some recommendations are proposed, including correction factors in fragility curves in order to reproduce in a better way the observed damage in masonry and reinforce concrete buildings. The lessons learned would contribute to improve the simulation of expected damages due to future earthquakes in Lorca or other regions in Spain with similar characteristics regarding attenuation and vulnerability.
Abstract. This work describes the structure and characteristics of the geographic information system (GIS) developed for the urban seismic risk study of the city of Almería (southern Spain), identifying the stages in which the use of this tool proved to be very beneficial for adopting informed decisions throughout the execution of the work.After the completion of the regional emergency plans for seismic risk in Spain and its subsequent approval by the National Civil Defence Commission, the municipalities that need to develop specific local seismic risk plans have been identified. Hence, the next action is to develop urban seismic risk analyses at a proper scale (Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation -Risk-UR).For this evaluation, different factors influencing seismic risk such as seismic hazard, geotechnical soil characteristics, vulnerability of structures of the region, reparation costs of damaged buildings and exposed population are combined. All these variables are gathered and analysed within a GIS and subsequently used for seismic risk estimation. The GIS constitutes a highly useful working tool because it facilitates data interoperability, making the great volume of information required and the numerous processes that take part in the calculations easier to handle, speeding up the analysis and the interpretation and presentation of the results of the different working phases.The result of this study is based on a great set of variables that provide a comprehensive view of the urban seismic risk, such as the damage distribution of buildings and dwellings of different typologies, the mean damage and the number of uninhabitable buildings for the expected seismic motion, the number of dead and injured at different times of the day, the cost of reconstruction and repair of buildings, among others. These results are intended for interpretation and decision making in emergency management by unspecialised users (Civil Defence technicians and managers).
Abstract-This paper presents a new hazard-consistent ground motion characterization of the Itoiz dam site, located in Northern Spain. Firstly, we propose a methodology with different approximation levéis to the expected ground motion at the dam site. Secondly, we apply this methodology taking into account the particular characteristics of the site and of the dam. Hazard calculations were performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment method using a logic tree, which accounts for different seismic source zonings and different ground-motion attenuation relationships. The study was done in terms of peak ground acceleration and several spectral accelerations of periods coinciding with the fundamental vibration periods of the dam. In order to estímate these ground motions we consider two different dam conditions: when the dam is empty (T = 0.1 s) and when it is filled with water to its máximum capacity (T = 0.22 s). Additionally, seismic hazard analysis is done for two return periods: 975 years, related to the project earthquake, and 4,975 years, identified with an extreme event. Soil conditions were also taken into account at the site of the dam. Through the proposed methodology we deal with different forms of characterizing ground motion at the study site. In a first step, we obtain the uniform hazard response spectra for the two return periods. In a second step, a disaggregation analysis is done in order to obtain the controlling earthquakes that can affect the dam. Subsequently, we characterize the ground motion at the dam site in terms of specific response spectra for target motions defined by the expected valúes SA (7) of T = 0.1 and 0.22 s for the return periods of 975 and 4,975 years, respectively. Finally, synthetic acceleration time histories for earthquake events matching the controlling parameters are generated using the discrete wave-number method and subsequently analyzed. Because of the short relative distances between the controlling earthquakes and the dam site we considered finite sources in these computations. We conclude that directivity effects Special issue on Deformation and Gravity Change: Indicators of Isostasy, Tectonics, Volcanism and Climate Change PAGEOPH.should be taken into account as an important variable in this kind of studies for ground motion characteristics.
The alternative oxidase pathway (AOP) is associated with excess energy dissipation in leaves of terrestrial plants. To address whether this association is less important in palustrine plants, we compared the role of AOP in balancing energy and carbon metabolism in palustrine and terrestrial environments by identifying metabolic relationships between primary carbon metabolites and AOP in each habitat. We measured oxygen isotope discrimination during respiration, gas exchange, and metabolite profiles in aerial leaves of ten fern and angiosperm species belonging to five families organized as pairs of palustrine and terrestrial species. We performed a partial least square model combined with variable importance for projection to reveal relationships between the electron partitioning to the AOP (τa) and metabolite levels. Terrestrial plants showed higher values of net photosynthesis (AN) and τa, together with stronger metabolic relationships between τa and sugars, important for water conservation. Palustrine plants showed relationships between τa and metabolites related to the shikimate pathway and the GABA shunt, to be important for heterophylly. Excess energy dissipation via AOX is less crucial in palustrine environments than on land. The basis of this difference resides in the contrasting photosynthetic performance observed in each environment, thus reinforcing the importance of AOP for photosynthesis.
Abstract. This paper presents a methodological approach for seismic hazard assessment that considers a hybrid source model composed by faults as independent entities and zones (containing the residual seismicity). The seismic potential of both types of sources is derived from different data: for the zones, the recurrence model is estimated from the seismic 10 catalog. For fault sources, it is inferred from kinematic parameters derived from paleoseismicty and GNSS measurements.Distributing the seismic potential associated to each source is a key question when considering hybrid models of zone and faults, which some authors solve by assigning to the fault only the earthquakes that exceed a fixed magnitude value Mc. In the present approach, instead of restricting the magnitudes of each type of source, the distribution of seismic potential is carried out only for magnitudes below the maximum magnitude value completely recorded in the catalog (Mmaxc). This is 15 derived from a completeness analysis and can be lower than the Mmax generated by the faults, taking into account that their the recurrence period can be higher than the observation period of the catalog.The proposed approach is applied in southern Spain, a region of low-to-moderate seismic where faults move slowly. The results obtained are contrasted with the results of a seismic hazard model using the traditional zone model exclusively.Results show a concentration of expected accelerations around fault traces using the hybrid approach, which is not 20 appreciated in the classic approach using zones exclusively.
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