Uncertain Water Environment Carrying Capacity Simulation Based on the Monte Carlo Method–System Dynamics Model: A Case Study of Fushun City

Abstract

Water environment carrying capacity (WECC) is an effective indicator that can help resolve the contradiction between social and economic development and water environment pollution. Considering the complexity of the water environment and socioeconomic systems in Northeast China, this study establishes an evaluation index system and a system dynamics (SD) model of WECC in Fushun City, Liaoning, China, through the combination of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and SD. In consideration of the uncertainty of the future development of society, the Monte Carlo and scenario analysis methods are used to simulate the WECC of Fushun City. Results show that if the current social development mode is maintained, then the WECC in Fushun will have a slow improvement in the future, and a “general” carrying state with a WECC index of 0.566 in 2025 will be developed. Moreover, focusing on economic development (Scheme 1 with a WECC index of [0.22, 0.45] in 2025) or environmental protection (Scheme 2 with a WECC index of [0.48, 0.68] in 2025) cannot effectively improve the local water environment. Only by combining the two coordinated development modes (Scheme 3) can WECC be significantly improved and achieve “general” or “good” carrying state with a WECC index of [0.59, 0.79]. An important development of this study is that the probability of each scheme’s realization can be calculated after different schemes are formulated. In turn, the feasibility of the scheme will be evaluated after knowing the probability, so as to determine the path suitable for local development. This is of great significance for future urban planning.

Assessment and Simulation of Water Environment Carrying Capacity in a River Basin Using System Dynamics Model

“…The water quality standard is determined as the upper limit and threshold of WECC, which is the core premise of the WECC theory [34]. From the three dimensions of "structure, scale, and network," the economic and population scale that the water environment capacity can support is predicted [35].…”

Selecting methods for water resources in coastal area: Comparative study cases of Hong Kong and Jakarta

“…The demand for fresh water in coastal areas puts pressure on the availability of freshwater sources, causing water shortages due to the exploitation of water resources and saltwater intrusion (Jeuken et al, 2017). Factors causing the high demand for water in coastal areas include population growth and rapid social and economic growth, so there will be conflicts over freshwater demand (Liu et al, 2019;Wang et al, 2020). Intensive human activity is also a threat to the system's sustainability in urban areas, especially in the increasing consumption of water outside of household needs which must be considered when measuring water quantity.…”

Evaluation of Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity Based on Support Pressure Coupling Mechanism: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

“…The ecological space of the city is heavily encroached upon by production space and living space [1]. Problems such as haze pollution [2], water shortages [3][4][5][6], human-land conflict [7,8], loss of biodiversity [9], destruction of ecosystems [9], traffic congestion, and regional development gaps [10][11][12] are becoming increasingly serious [13][14][15][16][17][18]. Improving the urban RECC is necessary not only to improve the economic development of cities but also to accelerate the urbanization process and improve the quality of urban development.…”