Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments

Abstract

Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardized approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardized assessment of 25 532 rates of phenological change for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater and marine taxa. The majority of spring and summer events have advanced, and more rapidly than previously documented. Such consistency is indicative of shared large scale drivers. Furthermore, average rates of change have accelerated in a way that is consistent with observed warming trends. Less coherent patterns in some groups of organisms point to the agency of more local scale processes and multiple drivers. For the first time we show a broad scale signal of differential phenological change among trophic levels; across environments advances in timing were slowest for secondary consumers, thus heightening the potential risk of temporal mismatch in key trophic interactions. If current patterns and rates of phenological change are indicative of future trends, future climate warming may exacerbate trophic mismatching, further disrupting the functioning, persistence and resilience of many ecosystems and having a major impact on ecosystem services.

Spring phenological responses of marine and freshwater plankton to changing temperature and light conditions

“…While climate-related phenological shifts toward earlier spring events are widespread across marine and freshwater habitats (Thackeray et al 2010), there is less consensus on bloom magnitude (Adrian et al 1999;Boyce et al 2010;Straile 2002;Taucher and Oschlies 2011). Our analysis confirms the general shift toward earlier blooms at increased temperature and supports predictions that the effects of climate change on plankton production will vary among sites, depending on resource limitation and species composition.…”

“…Chrysophytes, which contributed only a small proportion to overall biomass in both systems, were the least responsive to warming. Similar to primary producers, peak timing of micro-and mesozooplankton species advanced at increased temperature, which is consistent with widespread observations in freshwater and marine systems (Blenckner et al 2007;Straile 2002;Thackeray et al 2010). Overall, the successional pattern suggests that zooplankton responded more strongly to warming than phytoplankton, as indicated by the faster acceleration of initial population growth rates in high temperature treatments (Fig.…”

Spatial and temporal variations in the Annual Pollen Index recorded by sites belonging to the Portuguese Aerobiology Network

“…The finally selected tree was the most complex model within one standard error (1 SE) from the best predictive tree (Breiman et al 1984), using Simple linear regression analysis was used to describe trends in the API of selected pollen seasons following the methodology described in literature (e.g. Thackeray et al (2010), Ziello et al (2012), Smith et al…”

Focusing Ecological Research for Conservation

“…At a broad scale, shifts in phenology associated with climate change can be harmful by interfering with trophic dynamics (Thackeray et al 2010), but further assessments are necessary to highlight such effects at finer scale.…”