Trends in extreme summer temperatures at Belgrade

Unkašević, Miroslava; Vujović, Dragana; Tošić, Ivana

doi:10.1007/s00704-005-0131-6

Cited by 38 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…After 200 years, this random variation in the frequency of record events is still larger than the effect of global warming. On the other hand, global warming already does affect the frequency of extreme temperature events that are defined by exceeding a fixed threshold [2,3,4,5,6,7].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, for example, if a city's record temperature for a particular day is 40 • C, then an increase in the frequency of daily temperatures above 36 • C (i.e., above the 90 th percentile) is a threshold event, but not a record-breaking event. Trends in threshold temperature events are also impacted by climate change, and is thus an active research area [2,3,4,5,6,7]. Studying threshold events is also one of the ways to assess agricultural, ecological, and human health effects due to climate change [8,9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Role of global warming on the statistics of record-breaking temperatures

2006

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We theoretically study the statistics of record-breaking daily temperatures and validate these predictions using both Monte Carlo simulations and 126 years of available data from the city of Philadelphia. Using extreme statistics, we derive the number and the magnitude of record temperature events, based on the observed Gaussian daily temperature distribution in Philadelphia, as a function of the number of years of observation. We then consider the case of global warming, where the mean temperature systematically increases with time. Over the 126-year time range of observations, we argue that the current warming rate is insufficient to measurably influence the frequency of record temperature events, a conclusion that is supported by numerical simulations and by the Philadelphia data. We also study the role of correlations between temperatures on successive days and find that they do not affect the frequency or magnitude of record temperature events.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of global warming on the statistics of record-breaking temperatures

2006

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“…Series of daily temperatures observed in Belgrade and Niš have been used earlier by Domonkos et al (2003) in their analysis of extreme temperature events in South and Central Europe. Seasonal means for July-August periods, and annual absolute maximum temperatures for Belgrade have been analysed by Unkašević and Tošić (2005).…”

Section: Mlroslava Unkašević Ivana Tošićmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat waves in Belgrade and Nis

Unkašević¹,

Tošić²

2009

Geogr Pannon

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In this study, heat waves at two meteorological stations in Serbia are analysed based on daily maximum temperatures in July and August. The warmest summers as regards heat wave duration and severity occurred within the periods 1946-1952, 1988-1998 (especially 1992-1995) The first-order autoregressive model is applied to generate long series of the daily maximum temperature, from which the relative frequencies of heat waves are estimated. The relationships between the typical and longest heat waves, and the circulation conditions are analysed using the Hess-Brezowsky catalogue of macrocirculation types.

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“…Observational evidence and model simulations show that appreciable changes in the variability and long-term trends of extreme events are very likely in a gradually warming world (Benestad 2003, Beniston et al 2005, Unkaśević et al 2005, Tebaldi et al 2006, Semenov 2008. In this case, the dynamic of extremes is an important indicator of global warming, and the knowledge of their nature can strengthen the preparedness of society for anticipated changes in weather patterns and climate perturbations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Air temperature trends and extremes in Chisinau (Moldova) as evidence of climate change

Corobov¹,

Sheridan²,

Overcenco³

et al. 2010

Clim. Res.

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A trend analysis of surface temperature in Chisinau (Moldova) between 1887 and 2008 is presented. The observational data included monthly mean temperatures (Tmean) for the whole period, and monthly mean maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures since 1945. The following principal aspects were studied: (1) long-term temperature trends and changes in their patterns; (2) seasonal temperature extremes and their links with rising mean temperatures; and (3) an extremely hot summer of 2007 in Moldova as evidence of regional warming. In the last 3 decades, strong positive trends were observed in all temperature variables and, unlike previous periods , have become statistically significant for most seasons. Trends increased drastically: annual, winter and summer Tmean rose by about 0.62, 0.50 and 0.95°C per decade, respectively, in 1981-2008, compared with 0.035, 0.075 and 0.018°C per decade, respectively, in 1887-1980. Means of seasonal (except autumn) and annual temperatures in 1981-2008 differed from previous years at a 95% and higher confidence level; their variability, expressed in standard deviation (SD) values (σ), did not change significantly. In the last 3 decades there was practically no significant change in means, variability and distribution of Tmax in comparison with 1945-1980; however, Tmin changed significantly in all these statistics. The lack of significant changes in recent Tmax resulted in a relative stability of the frequency of temperature extremes, defined as the 90th and 95th percentiles of long-term distributions in winter and summer; some increase is observed only for absolute maxima. In 1981-2008 these thresholds for mean Tmin were exceeded 7 and 3 times, respectively, compared to the 1940s-1970s, when there were no such extreme events. The results strongly suggest that the observed warming in Chisinau was primarily caused by the Tmin increase. In summer 2007, monthly Tmean exceeded the corresponding values of the baseline climate by 2.5-4.0 σ, the seasonal Tmean by 5 σ.

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Trends in extreme summer temperatures at Belgrade

Cited by 38 publications

References 10 publications

Role of global warming on the statistics of record-breaking temperatures

Role of global warming on the statistics of record-breaking temperatures

Heat waves in Belgrade and Nis

Air temperature trends and extremes in Chisinau (Moldova) as evidence of climate change

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