Role of global warming on the statistics of record-breaking temperatures

Redner, S.; Petersen, Mark

doi:10.1103/physreve.74.061114

Cited by 105 publications

(117 citation statements)

References 38 publications

(75 reference statements)

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“…[34] that the observed frequency and average value of record temperatures, at least one locality, can be understood in terms of a stationary climate, so that the current warming rate does not have a noticeable effect on the record statistics of daily temperatures (at least in the city of Philadelphia where the data was measured). Additionally, the ratio of the number of record high (record of the highest temperature of a given day) and record low (record of the lowest temperature of a given day) temperatures was suggested as a useful measure to point out trends in time series [34]. This idea was extended to earthquakes by Ref.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Record-breaking events during the compressive failure of porous materials

et al. 2016

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An accurate understanding of the interplay between random and deterministic processes in generating extreme events is of critical importance in many fields, from forecasting extreme meteorological events to the catastrophic failure of materials and in the Earth. Here we investigate the statistics of record-breaking events in the time series of crackling noise generated by local rupture events during the compressive failure of porous materials. The events are generated by computer simulations of the uniaxial compression of cylindrical samples in a discrete element model of sedimentary rocks that closely resemble those of real experiments. The number of records grows initially as a decelerating power law of the number of events, followed by an acceleration immediately prior to failure. The distribution of the size and lifetime of records are power laws with relatively low exponents. We demonstrate the existence of a characteristic record rank k * , which separates the two regimes of the time evolution. Up to this rank deceleration occurs due to the effect of random disorder. Record breaking then accelerates towards macroscopic failure, when physical interactions leading to spatial and temporal correlations dominate the location and timing of local ruptures. The size distribution of records of different ranks has a universal form independent of the record rank. Subsequences of events that occur between consecutive records are characterized by a power-law size distribution, with an exponent which decreases as failure is approached. High-rank records are preceded by smaller events of increasing size and waiting time between consecutive events and they are followed by a relaxation process. As a reference, surrogate time series are generated by reshuffling the event times. The record statistics of the uncorrelated surrogates agrees very well with the corresponding predictions of independent identically distributed random variables, which confirms that temporal and spatial correlation in the crackling noise is responsible for the observed unique behavior. In principle the results could be used to improve forecasting of catastrophic failure events, if they can be observed reliably in real time.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Record-breaking events during the compressive failure of porous materials

et al. 2016

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“…The case of a discrete random walker is also studied, and similar asymptotic behavior is found. The study of record statistics is an integral part of diverse fields including meteorology [1,2], hydrology [3], economics [4], sports [5,6,7] and entertainment industries among others. In popular media such as television or newspapers, one always hears and reads about record breaking events.…”

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confidence: 99%

Universal Record Statistics of Random Walks and Lévy Flights

2008

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We compute exactly the statistics of the number of records in a discrete-time random walk model on a line where the walker stays at a given position with a nonzero probability 0 ≤ p ≤ 1, while with the complementary probability 1 − p, it jumps to a new position with a jump length drawn from a continuous and symmetric distribution f 0 (η). We show that, for arbitrary p, the statistics of records up to step N is completely universal, i.e., independent of f 0 (η) for any N .We also compute the connected two-time correlation function C p (m 1 , m 2 ) of the record-breaking events at times m 1 and m 2 and show it is also universal for all p. Moreover, we demonstrate that C p (m 1 , m 2 ) < C 0 (m 1 , m 2 ) for all p, indicating that a nonzero p induces additional anti-correlations between record events. We further show that these anti-correlations lead to a drastic reduction in the fluctuations of the record numbers with increasing p. This is manifest in the Fano factor, i.e. the ratio of the variance and the mean of the record number, which we compute explicitly. We also show that an interesting scaling limit emerges when p → 1, N → ∞ with the product t = (1 − p) N fixed. We compute exactly the associated universal scaling functions for the mean, variance and the Fano factor of the number of records in this scaling limit.

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“…This ratio can be quantitatively related to global warming. Redner and Petersen (2006) conducted a similar study, calculating the numbers of record breaking maximum and minimum temperatures in Philadelphia for each day of the year over a 120-year period. They present a framework for record-breaking climatological analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Glick (1978) published several applications of Tata's method, including a brief study of daily temperatures. Benestad (2004Benestad ( , 2008 and Redner and Petersen (2006) further developed meteorological applications in the context of global warming; Vogel et al (2001) applied the method to flooding in the United States, and Van Aalsburg et al (2010) applied the method to global earthquake magnitudes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Second, we determine the record-breaking interval durations, t rb , both long and short ( t rb-long and t rb-short ) as a function of "natural time" n. Third, we calculate the ratio of the number of recordbreaking long intervals to the number of record-breaking short intervals as a function of time r(t), which is suggested to be sensitive to trends in noisy time series data (Benestad, 2004(Benestad, , 2008Redner and Petersen, 2006). We will also show that our data indicate a possible precursory signal to large earthquakes that is consistent with the accelerated moment release (AMR) theory.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Record-breaking earthquake intervals in a global catalogue and an aftershock sequence

Yoder

Turcotte

Rundle

2010

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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Abstract. For the purposes of this study, an interval is the elapsed time between two earthquakes in a designated region; the minimum magnitude for the earthquakes is prescribed. A record-breaking interval is one that is longer (or shorter) than preceding intervals; a starting time must be specified. We consider global earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5.5 and show that the record-breaking intervals are well estimated by a Poissonian (random) theory. We also consider the aftershocks of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake and show that the record-breaking intervals are approximated by very different statistics. In both cases, we calculate the number of record-breaking intervals (n rb ) and the record-breaking interval durations t rb as a function of "natural time", the number of elapsed events. We also calculate the ratio of record-breaking long intervals to record-breaking short intervals as a function of time, r(t), which is suggested to be sensitive to trends in noisy time series data. Our data indicate a possible precursory signal to large earthquakes that is consistent with accelerated moment release (AMR) theory.

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Role of global warming on the statistics of record-breaking temperatures

Cited by 105 publications

References 38 publications

Record-breaking events during the compressive failure of porous materials

Record-breaking events during the compressive failure of porous materials

Universal Record Statistics of Random Walks and Lévy Flights

Record-breaking earthquake intervals in a global catalogue and an aftershock sequence

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