Trends in bird abundance differ among protected forests but not bird guilds

Doser, Jeffrey W.; Weed, Aaron S.; Zipkin, Elise F.; Miller, Kathryn M.; Finley, Andrew O.

doi:10.1002/eap.2377

Cited by 6 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 87 publications

(200 reference statements)

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“…By including information from multiple data sources within a region, the ICOM yields area‐wide averaged species‐specific trends. If an area‐wide averaged trend is not desired, trends from different spatial locations could be estimated hierarchically in a multi‐region framework (Doser, Weed, et al, 2021) or treated as spatially varying coefficients to explicitly model spatial heterogeneity (Finley, 2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated community occupancy models: A framework to assess occurrence and biodiversity dynamics using multiple data sources

et al. 2022

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1. The occurrence and distributions of wildlife populations and communities are shifting as a result of global changes. To evaluate whether these shifts are negatively impacting biodiversity processes, it is critical to monitor the status, trends and effects of environmental variables on entire communities. However, modelling the dynamics of multiple species simultaneously can require large amounts of diverse data, and few modelling approaches exist to simultaneously provide species and community-level inferences.2. We present an 'integrated community occupancy model' (ICOM) that unites principles of data integration and hierarchical community modelling in a single framework to provide inferences on species-specific and community occurrence dynamics using multiple data sources. The ICOM combines replicated and nonreplicated detectionnondetection data sources using a hierarchical framework that explicitly accounts for different detection and sampling processes across data sources. We use simulations to compare the ICOM to previously developed hierarchical community occupancy models and single species integrated distribution models. We then apply our model to assess the occurrence and biodiversity dynamics of foliage-gleaning birds in the White Mountain National Forest in the northeastern USA from 2010 to 2018 using three independent data sources.3. Simulations reveal that integrating multiple data sources in the ICOM increased precision and accuracy of species and community-level inferences compared to single data source models, although benefits of integration were dependent on the information content of individual data sources (e.g. amount of replication). Compared to single species models, the ICOM yielded more precise species-level estimates. Within our case study, the ICOM had the highest out-of-sample predictive performance compared to single species models and models that used only a subset of the three data sources.4. The ICOM provides more precise estimates of occurrence dynamics compared to multi-species models using single data sources or integrated single-species models.We further found that the ICOM had improved predictive performance across a broad region of interest with an empirical case study of forest birds. The ICOM offers an

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated community occupancy models: A framework to assess occurrence and biodiversity dynamics using multiple data sources

et al. 2022

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Trends in bird abundance differ among protected forests but not bird guilds

Doser

Weed

Zipkin

et al. 2021

Ecological Applications

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Improved monitoring and associated inferential tools to efficiently identify declining bird populations, particularly of rare or sparsely distributed species, is key to informed conservation and management across large spatiotemporal regions. We assess abundance trends for 106 bird species in a network of eight forested national parks located within the northeast United States from 2006 to 2019 using a novel hierarchical model. We develop a multispecies, multiregion, removal‐sampling model that shares information across species and parks to enable inference on rare species and sparsely sampled parks and to evaluate the effects of local forest structure. Trends in bird abundance over time varied widely across parks, but species showed similar trends within parks. Three parks (Acadia National Park and Marsh‐Billings‐Rockefeller and Morristown National Historical Parks [NHP]) decreased in bird abundance across all species, while three parks (Saratoga NHP and Roosevelt‐Vanderbilt and Weir‐Farm National Historic Sites) increased in abundance. Bird abundance peaked at medium levels of basal area and high levels of percent forest and forest regeneration, with percent forest having the largest effect. Variation in these effects across parks could be a result of differences in forest structural stage and diversity. By sharing information across both communities and parks, our novel hierarchical model enables uncertainty‐quantified estimates of abundance across multiple geographical (i.e., network, park) and taxonomic (i.e., community, guild, species) levels over a large spatiotemporal region. We found large variation in abundance trends across parks but not across bird guilds, suggesting that local forest condition might have a broad and consistent effect on the entire bird community within a given park. Research should target the three parks with overall decreasing trends in bird abundance to further identify what specific factors are driving observed declines across the bird community. Understanding how bird communities respond to local forest structure and other stressors (e.g., pest outbreaks, climate change) is crucial for informed and lasting management.

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