About one‐third of North America is forested. These forests are of incalculable value to human society in terms of harvested resources and ecosystem services and are sensitive to disturbance regimes. Epidemics of forest insects and diseases are the dominant sources of disturbance to North American forests. Here we review current understanding of climatic effects on the abundance of forest insects and diseases in North America, and of the ecological and socioeconomic impacts of biotic disturbances. We identified 27 insects (6 nonindigenous) and 22 diseases (9 nonindigenous) that are notable agents of disturbance in North American forests. The distribution and abundance of forest insects and pathogens respond rapidly to climatic variation due to their physiological sensitivity to temperature, high mobility, short generation times, and high reproductive potential. Additionally, climate affects tree defenses, tree tolerance, and community interactions involving enemies, competitors, and mutualists of insects and diseases. Recent research affirms the importance of milder winters, warmer growing seasons, and changes in moisture availability to the occurrence of biotic disturbances. Predictions from the first U.S. National Climate Assessment of expansions in forest disturbances from climate change have been upheld, in some cases more rapidly and dramatically than expected. Clear examples are offered by recent epidemics of spruce beetles in Alaska, mountain pine beetle in high‐elevation five‐needle pine forests of the Rocky Mountains, and southern pine beetle in the New Jersey Pinelands. Pathogens are less studied with respect to climate, but some are facilitated by warmer and wetter summer conditions. Changes in biotic disturbances have broad consequences for forest ecosystems and the services they provide to society. Climatic effects on forest insect and disease outbreaks may foster further changes in climate by influencing the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between forests and the atmosphere. Climate‐induced changes in forest productivity and disturbance create opportunities as well as vulnerabilities (e.g., increases in productivity in many areas, and probably decreases in disturbance risks in some areas). There is a critical need to better understand and predict the interactions among climate, forest productivity, forest disturbance, and the socioeconomic relations between forests and people.

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Bark beetles are among the most devastating biotic agents affecting forests globally and several species are expected to be favored by climate change. Given the potential interactions of insect outbreaks with other biotic and abiotic disturbances, and the potentially strong impact of changing disturbance regimes on forest resources, investigating climatic drivers of destructive bark beetle outbreaks is of paramount importance. We analyzed 17 time‐series of the amount of wood damaged by Ips typographus, the most destructive pest of Norway spruce forests, collected across 8 European countries in the last three decades. We aimed to quantify the relative importance of key climate drivers in explaining timber loss dynamics, also testing for possible synergistic effects. Local outbreaks shared the same drivers, including increasing summer rainfall deficit and warm temperatures. Large availability of storm‐felled trees in the previous year was also strongly related to an increase in timber loss, likely by providing an alternative source of breeding material. We did not find any positive synergy among outbreak drivers. On the contrary, the occurrence of large storms reduced the positive effect of warming temperatures and rainfall deficit. The large surplus of breeding material likely boosted I. typographus population size above the density threshold required to colonize and kill healthy trees irrespective of other climate triggers. Importantly, we found strong negative density dependence in I. typographus that may provide a mechanism for population decline after population eruptions. Generality in the effects of complex climatic events across different geographical areas suggests that the large‐scale drivers can be used as early warning indicators of increasing local outbreak probability.

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Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) is a US Department of Agriculture Forest Service program that aims to monitor changes in forests across the US. FIA hosts one of the largest ecological datasets in the world, though its complexity limits access for many potential users. rFIA is an R package designed to simplify the estimation of forest attributes using data collected by the FIA Program. Specifically, rFIA improves access to the spatio-temporal estimation capacity of the FIA Database via space-time indexed summaries of forest variables within userdefined population boundaries (e.g., geographic, temporal, biophysical). The package implements multiple design-based estimators, and has been validated against official estimates and sampling errors produced by the FIA Program. We demonstrate the utility of rFIA by assessing changes in abundance and mortality rates of ash (Fraxinus spp.) populations in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan following the establishment of emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis).

Climate change is altering legacies of native insect-caused disturbances and contributing to non-native invasions globally. Many insect fitness traits are temperature dependent and projected climatic changes are expected to cause continued alterations in insect-caused tree mortality, with uncertain consequences for forest ecosystems and their management. Dendroctonus ponderosae in Pinus habitats of western North America and Ips typographus in European Picea are among the most significant tree mortality agents on each continent. Changing climate is influencing both species in their native habitats, although thermal suitability if they should invade new continents and novel forest habitats has not been investigated. We assessed thermal suitability for intra-and inter-continental establishment using physiological models that describe evolved, temperature-dependent traits of each species. Models were driven by projections from two Global Climate Models representing RCP 8.5. Simulations suggest that for both species the common phenological strategy of one generation annually (univoltine) will shift northward with warming throughout this century. As optimum habitat for I. typographus univoltinism shifts northward, habitat supporting a 2nd generation, a historically common strategy in warm European Picea forests, expands on both continents. In contrast, a 2nd D. ponderosae generation has been historically rare due to traits that evolved for phenological synchrony in its cool native habitats. As thermal habitat for D. ponderosae univoltinism shifts northward, suitability for a 2nd generation is limited to the warmest Pinus forests on both continents. In the near future (2011-2040), models project extensive thermal suitability for inter-continental establishment of both species, highlighting the need for effective mitigation policies and continued monitoring Bentz et al. Bark Beetle Inter-Continental Establishment at ports in an era of climate change and increasing global trade. Throughout the century, thermal suitability remains high for I. typographus population success on both continents, for D. ponderosae in warm areas of Europe, and for D. ponderosae expansion into novel North American Pinus habitats. Portions of the historical D. ponderosae range, however, are projected to become thermally unsuitable.

Changing forest disturbance regimes and climate are driving accelerated tree mortality across temperate forests. However, it remains unknown if elevated mortality has induced decline of tree populations and the ecological, economic, and social benefits they provide. Here, we develop a standardized forest demographic index and use it to quantify trends in tree population dynamics over the last two decades in the western United States. The rate and pattern of change we observe across species and tree size-distributions is alarming and often undesirable. We observe significant population decline in a majority of species examined, show decline was particularly severe, albeit size-dependent, among subalpine tree species, and provide evidence of widespread shifts in the size-structure of montane forests. Our findings offer a stark warning of changing forest composition and structure across the western US, and suggest that sustained anthropogenic and natural stress will likely result in broad-scale transformation of temperate forests globally.

States harbor important older forest structure compared with matrix forests. Ecosphere 7(7):e01404. 10.1002/ecs2.1404Abstract. We analyzed land-cover and forest vegetation data from nearly 25,000 permanent plots distributed across 50 national parks in the eastern United States, along with the matrix around each park, to examine structural characteristics of park forests in relation to their surrounding landscape. Over 2000 of these plots are part of the National Park Service (NPS) Inventory and Monitoring Program (I&M), and the remaining 22,500+ plots are part of the US Forest Service (USFS) Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program. This is the first study to compare forest structure in protected lands with the surrounding forest matrix over such a large area of the United States and is only possible because of the 10+ years of data that are now publicly available from USFS-FIA and NPS I&M. Results of this study indicate that park forests, where logging is largely prohibited, preserve areas of regionally significant older forest habitat. Park forests consistently had greater proportions of late-successional forest, greater live tree basal area, greater densities of live and dead large trees, and considerably larger volume of coarse woody debris. Park forests also had lower tree growth and mortality rates than matrix forests, suggesting different forest dynamics between park and matrix forests. The divergent patterns we observed between matrix and park forests were similar to those reported in studies that compared managed and old-growth forests, although the differences in our study were less pronounced. With the majority of park forests in second growth, eastern parks may be a more realistic baseline to compare with the more intensively managed matrix forests. We recommend that park managers allow natural disturbance and the development of older structure to continue in park forests. In addition, long-term maintenance of regional biodiversity will likely require increases in older forest structure in the matrix. As the NPS moves into its next century of land preservation, we encourage managers to consider parks important components of a larger regional effort to preserve biodiversity and ecosystem processes in eastern US forests. The data collected by NPS I&M programs will continue to provide important information and guidance toward these regional conservation efforts.