Trends and Solar Irradiance Effects in the Mesosphere

Qian, Liying; Jacobi, Ch.; McInerney, Joseph

doi:10.1029/2018ja026367

Cited by 36 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 90 publications

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“…, which substantiates the uncertainties regarding this complex atmospheric region. Other model estimates, includingAkmaev and Fomichev (2000),Fomichev et al (2007),Garcia et al (2007),Lübken et al (2013), andQian et al (2019) are in general agreement with the WACCM-X simulations, finding mesopause-region trends to be fairly small.…”

supporting

confidence: 70%

Whole Atmosphere Climate Change: Dependence on Solar Activity

et al. 2019

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We conducted global simulations of temperature change due to anthropogenic trace gas emissions, which extended from the surface, through the thermosphere and ionosphere, to the exobase. These simulations were done under solar maximum conditions, in order to compare the effect of the solar cycle on global change to previous work using solar minimum conditions. The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model‐eXtended was employed in this study. As in previous work, lower atmosphere warming, due to increasing anthropogenic gases, is accompanied by upper atmosphere cooling, starting in the lower stratosphere, and becoming dramatic, almost 2 K per decade for the global mean annual mean, in the thermosphere. This thermospheric cooling, and consequent reduction in density, is less than the almost 3 K per decade for solar minimum conditions calculated in previous simulations. This dependence of global change on solar activity conditions is due to solar‐driven increases in radiationally active gases other than carbon dioxide, such as nitric oxide. An ancillary result of these and previous simulations is an estimate of the solar cycle effect on temperatures as a function of altitude. These simulations used modest, five‐member, ensembles, and measured sea surface temperatures rather than a fully coupled ocean model, so any solar cycle effects were not statistically significant in the lower troposphere. Temperature change from solar minimum to maximum increased from near zero at the tropopause to about 1 K at the stratopause, to approximately 500 K in the upper thermosphere, commensurate with the empirical evidence, and previous numerical models.

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confidence: 70%

Whole Atmosphere Climate Change: Dependence on Solar Activity

et al. 2019

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“…The temperature response is significant in the upper mesosphere during July and January (Figures a and b), with the exception of a slightly reduced solar response at the highest latitudes in summer. Model studies (Gan et al, ; Karlsson & Kuilman, ; Qian et al, ) have shown a far stronger reduction in the T‐Lα correlation near the polar summer mesopause than is indicated by the observations in Figure , a discrepancy that is currently not understood. The H 2 O‐Lα anticorrelation is significant in the upper mesosphere during July and January (Figures c and d), except for latitudes poleward of ~55° where a weak positive correlation appears.…”

Section: The Missing Solar Cycle Responsementioning

confidence: 86%

“…The mystery deepens as some models predict a strong solar cycle response in PMCs, T, and H 2 O after 1979 (e.g., Berger & Lübken, ; Lübken et al, , ), while others indicate a missing solar cycle response in T near the polar summer mesopause (Gan et al, ; Karlsson & Kuilman, ; Qian et al, ). Hartogh et al () showed that the anticorrelation between solar Lyman‐α (Lα) and H 2 O measured in the polar upper mesosphere was present in winter but not summer (1996–2006 at 69°N).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Missing Solar Cycle Response of the Polar Summer Mesosphere

Hervig

Siskind

Bailey

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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The response of the polar mesosphere to the 11‐year solar cycle is investigated using satellite observations from 1979 to 2018. Solar maximum is expected to cause higher temperatures and lower water vapor in the upper mesosphere, thus reducing the amount of ice in polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs). While PMCs showed a clear anticorrelation with the solar cycle before roughly 2002, this response is absent during recent years. PMCs are controlled by temperature and water vapor, which were examined using mesospheric observations during 1992–2018. The main cause of the diminished solar cycle in PMCs near 68°S and 68°N appears to be a dramatic suppression of the solar cycle response of water vapor. The solar cycle response of temperature also decreases after 2002, but calculations show that the decreased H2O response had more than 3 times the impact on PMCs than the reduction in temperature response.

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“…Increasing eddy diffusion was advanced as a possible explanation of increasing CO2 trends with altitude (Emmert et al, 2012). However, Qian et al (2019) have shown that sampling of SABER data in window lengths less than 60 days can lead to incorrect CO2 values. As a result, increased eddy diffusion is no longer necessary to explain the anomalous CO2 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1097 Preprint.…”

Section: Mechanisms For a 4 Year Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of 24 years of mesopause region OH rotational temperature observations at Davis, Antarctica. Part 2: Evidence of a quasi-quadrennial oscillation (QQO) in the polar mesosphere

French¹,

Klekociuk²,

Mulligan³

2020

Preprint

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<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Observational evidence of a quasi-quadrennial oscillation (QQO) in the polar mesosphere is presented based on the analysis of 24 years of hydroxyl (OH) nightglow rotational temperatures derived from scanning spectrometer observations above Davis Research Station, Antarctica (68&#176;&#8201;S, 78&#176;&#8201;E). After removal of long term trend and solar cycle responses, the residual winter mean temperature variability contains an oscillation over an approximately 3.5&#8211;4.5 year cycle with an amplitude of 3&#8211;4&#8201;K. Here we investigate this QQO feature in the context of the global temperature, pressure, wind and surface fields using the Aura/MLS and TIMED/SABER satellite data, ERA5 reanalysis and the Extended-Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature and Optimally-Interpolated sea ice concentration data sets. We find a significant anti-correlation between the QQO and the meridional wind at 86&#8201;km altitude measured by a medium frequency spaced antenna radar at Davis. The QQO signal is also correlated with vertical transport as determined from evaluation of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations in the mesosphere. Together this relationship suggesting that a substantial part of the QQO is the result of adiabatic heating and cooling driven by the meridional flow. The presence of quasi-stationary or persistent patterns in the ERA5 data geopotential anomaly and the meridional wind anomaly data during warm and cold phases of the QQO suggests a tidal or planetary wave influence in its formation, which may act on the filtering of gravity waves to drive an adiabatic response in the mesosphere. The QQO signal potentially arises from an ocean-atmosphere response, and appears to have a signature in Antarctic sea ice extent.</p>

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Trends and Solar Irradiance Effects in the Mesosphere

Cited by 36 publications

References 90 publications

Whole Atmosphere Climate Change: Dependence on Solar Activity

Whole Atmosphere Climate Change: Dependence on Solar Activity

The Missing Solar Cycle Response of the Polar Summer Mesosphere

Analysis of 24 years of mesopause region OH rotational temperature observations at Davis, Antarctica. Part 2: Evidence of a quasi-quadrennial oscillation (QQO) in the polar mesosphere

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