Trauma and Turnout: The Political Consequences of Traumatic Events

Abstract

How do traumatic experiences shape individuals’ political behavior? Political scientists have investigated the behavioral changes caused by natural disasters and terrorist attacks, but no work to date has investigated the political consequences of such events using the framework of psychological trauma. In this study, I develop a theory of posttraumatic political response that explains how traumatic events influence voter turnout. To test this theory, I identify the effects of three different types of traumatic events: Black church arson attacks, mass shootings, and natural disasters. I find that a traumatic event decreases turnout in the next presidential election by 0.5–3.7 percentage points, but Black social identity conditions this effect—church arsons and Hurricane Katrina mobilize Black voters. Finally, I find that closer temporal proximity to an election increases the likelihood of a mobilizing effect.

More a Swell than a Ripple: The Persistent Impact of the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami on Voter Turnout

“…While some studies have found that natural disasters have a positive effect on political participation (Aldrich 2012;Chen 2013;Fair et al 2017;Jenkins 2019), others have found a negative effect (Sinclair, Hall, and Alvarez 2011;Rudolph and Kuhn 2018;Marsh 2022) and yet others have found no effect (Bodet, Thomas, and Tessier 2016).…”

“…Moreover, existing empirical evidence are relatively scarce and often contradictory. While researchers such as Aldrich (2012), Chen (2013), Fair et al (2017), andJenkins (2019) have identified positive effects of disaster exposure on political participation, others like Marsh (2022), Sinclair, Hall, and Alvarez (2011), and Rudolph and Kuhn (2018) have observed predominantly negative effects. 2 To move beyond this theoretical and empirical impasse, we propose that to thoroughly understand the impact of experiencing a natural disaster on political participation one needs to recognize that disaster exposure is a compound treatment.…”

Perceived Racial Threats Increase Demand for Conservative Media: Evidence from Black Lives Matter Protests and Fox News Ratings

“…However, since they vary over time, adjusting for lagged outcomes potentially helps also adjust for unobserved time-varying confounders. Because of these advantages and disadvantages, as well as recent insights into the "bracketing relationship" between TWFE and lagged dependent variable (LDV) approaches, which indicate that TWFE and LDV models can provide upper and lower bounds of the true expected ATT (Angrist and Pischke, 2009;Ding and Li, 2019;Marsh, 2022;Xu, 2022), we see our third model as a way to obtain the lower bounds of the ATT.…”

Progressive Ideology and Support for Punitive Crime Policy: Evidence from Argentina and Brazil

“…First, research demonstrates that victimization and insecurity (H1) can overcome one’s ideological or moral convictions. Traumatic events—first or secondhand—have strong effects on citizen behavior and attitudes (Balcells, 2012; Bateson, 2012; Marsh, 2022). With regard to victimization specifically, victims often experience a change in feelings and a variety of reactions which can lead to fundamental shifts in their attitudes (Balcells, 2012).…”