More a Swell than a Ripple: The Persistent Impact of the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami on Voter Turnout

Abstract

This paper delves into the underexplored impact of natural disasters on political participation by studying the individual-level effect of exposure to the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami on turnout in subsequent Swedish elections. By combining unique data identifying the 16,000 Swedes who were exposed to the tsunami with population-wide registry data we are able to isolate the individual-level effect of natural disaster exposure. Our empirical analysis reveals a lasting, significant uptick in voting propensity among the exposed. Theoretically this may either be driven by a long-term dissatisfaction with the incumbent government’s disaster response, or post-traumatic growth. We find evidence consistent with both mechanisms. This research makes several novel contributions: First, by employing fine-grained pre- and post-disaster individual-level data we offer plausible causal estimates of short- and long-term effects. Second, examining Swedes abroad during the tsunami allows us to isolate individual motivational effects, circumventing the confounding role of local disaster effects.