Transportation and Air Quality Perspectives and Projections in a Mediterranean Country, the Case of Greece

Abstract

This study provides a thorough review and analysis of the evolution of the Greek vehicle fleet over the last ~30 years, which is next used for the generation of high granularity fleet projections, the assessment of associated air pollution and the estimation of relevant environmental benefits by 2030. The integrated methodology developed takes also into account vehicle clustering and the Brown’s Double Simple Exponential Smoothing technique that, together with the adoption of COPERT-based emission factors, allow for the estimation of the anticipated emissions in 2030. Expected 2030 emissions levels suggest a reduction across all pollutants compared to 2018, ranging from 3.7% for PM10 to 54.5% for NMVOC (and 46% for CO, 14% for SO2, 28% for NOX and 21% for CO2). We find that Greece is on track with national goals concerning the reduction of air pollution from the transportation sector, which designates the positive contribution anticipated by EVs and new, “greener” vehicles, and sets new challenges for the further improvement of the sector beyond the 2030 outlook.

A stakeholder-informed modelling study of Greece's energy transition amidst an energy crisis: The role of natural gas and climate ambition

“…The transport fuel mix is dominated by gasoline, due to the high numbers of passenger vehicles [93]. This trend continues until 2050 in the Greek NECP scenario (Fig.…”

Adverse Health Effects (Bronchitis Cases) Due to Particulate Matter Exposure: A Twenty-Year Scenario Analysis for the Greater Athens Area (Greece) Using the AirQ+ Model

“…The temperature remains high during the winter, with the average value in January being around 9.2 • C. During the summer temperature reaches very high levels, while a heat wave and temperatures above 40 • C are recorded two to three times every year [34]. Air pollution in the GAA is mainly due to anthropogenic activities, such as road transport, industry, emissions due to building heating consumption, and vehicle emissions [35]. It is assumed that at least 2 million vehicles circulate every day within the GAA [36].…”

“…Moreover, when sea breezes enter from the Saronic Gulf in the southwest, affecting the Athens basin, then the conditions of dispersion of air pollutants in the Greater Athens Area deteriorate greatly [45]. Air pollution in the GAA is mainly due to anthropogenic activities, such as road transport, industry, emissions due to building heating consumption, and vehicle emissions [35]. It is assumed that at least 2 million vehicles circulate every day within the GAA [36].…”

The Influence of Ozone Concentrations on Public Health over the Greater Athens Area, Greece

“…The beautiful and bright Mediterranean sun unfortunately catalyses' photochemical pollution and the transported dust from North Africa, enhancing ozone production [13]. The transported desert dust covers the Attica sky during spring and autumn with a total duration of about 30 days per year [13,14]. This phenomenon is associated with the development of childhood asthma and an increase in hospital admissions due to bronchitis [15,16].…”