A stakeholder-informed modelling study of Greece's energy transition amidst an energy crisis: The role of natural gas and climate ambition

Karamaneas, Anastasios; Koasidis, Konstantinos; Frilingou, Natasha; Xexakis, Georgios; Νίκας, Αλέξανδρος; Doukas, Haris

doi:10.1016/j.rset.2023.100049

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…According to [99,100], a concept's centrality-which is calculated by summing the related absolute indegree and outdegree causal link weights-determines its relative relevance inside the FCM structure. A summary of these derived indices and the concepts mentioned earlier can be seen in Table 2.…”

Section: Fcm Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Fuzzy Cognitive Map and PESTEL-Based Approach to Mitigate CO2 Urban Mobility: The Case of Larissa, Greece

Kokkinos

Nathanail

2023

Sustainability

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The CO2 reduction promise must be widely adopted if governments are to decrease future emissions and alter the trajectory of urban mobility. However, from a long-term perspective, the strategic vision of CO2 mitigation is driven by inherent uncertainty and unanticipated volatility. As these issues emerge, they have a considerable impact on the future trends produced by a number of exogenous and endogenous factors, including Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal aspects (PESTEL). This study’s goal is to identify, categorize, and analyze major PESTEL factors that have an impact on the dynamics of urban mobility in a rapidly changing environment. For the example scenario of the city of Larissa, Greece, a Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) approach was employed to examine the dynamic interactions and behaviors of the connected criteria from the previous PESTEL categories. An integrative strategy that evaluates the interaction of linguistic evaluations in the FCM is used to include all stakeholders in the creation of a Decision Support System (DSS). The methodology eliminates the uncertainty brought on by a dearth of quantitative data. The scenarios in the study strands highlight how urbanization’s effects on sustainable urban transportation and the emergence of urban PESTEL actors impact on CO2 reduction decision-making. We focus on the use case of Larissa, Greece (the city of the CIVITAS program), which began putting its sustainable urban development plan into practice in 2015. The proposed decision-making tool uses analytics and optimization algorithms to point responsible authorities and decision-makers in the direction of Larissa’s sustainable urban mobility and eventually the decarbonization of the urban and suburban regions.

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Section: Fcm Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Fuzzy Cognitive Map and PESTEL-Based Approach to Mitigate CO2 Urban Mobility: The Case of Larissa, Greece

Kokkinos

Nathanail

2023

Sustainability

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“…Amongst the available models P2G and storage units with efficiency losses (suitable for RHFC) are of specific interest for the use case in question. Regarding multi-horizon dynamic investment optimization over several years (long-term projection), as PyPSA seems to have fallen behind, the OSeMOSYS open-source modelling system is selected, as it enables long-run integrated assessment and energy planning, also suitable for crisis modelling (Karamaneas A. et al, 2022). From a mathematical perspective, OSeMOSYS is a deterministic, long-term modeling framework based on linear optimization (linear programming and mixed-integer linear programming).…”

Section: Multi-horizon Simulation and Optimizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

"Twinp2g: A Digital Twin Architecture for Optimal Power-to-Gas Planning"

2023

Proceedings of the International Conferences on E-Society 2023 and Mobile Learning 2023

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Power-to-Gas (P2G) is an emerging technology aiming to contribute towards addressing the climate change and environmental degradation. Yet, numerous factors need to be taken into consideration to for practical P2G applications. Digital Twins (DT) are used for simulation and optimization purposes, allowing investigation and prediction of their short-, medium-and long-term results. This paper presents a DT architecture, namely TwinP2G, that aims to couple the electrical power and natural gas sector by enabling multi-resolution simulations and optimization relating to the integration of P2G plants and regenerative hydrogen fuel cells (RHFC) in the power grid. The suggested solution is meant to be applied initially in the Greek energy system enabling data-and simulation-driven P2G and fuel cells optimal planning and techno-economic analyses. This piece of work concludes with future application plans and application development perspectives.

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“…Smith et al [31] emphasize the value of stakeholder engagement in co-designing adaptation strategies, stressing inclusive decision-making processes to tackle environmental challenges. Karamaneas et al [32] highlighted the added value of stakeholder aspirations in the energy sector in the field of climate change. Elkady et al [33] characterized interactions among community stakeholders as disaster buffers on the way to building community resilience.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Coastal Resilience: A Stakeholder Surveys

Roukounis,

Tsihrintzis

2024

Water

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We studied the significance of stakeholder engagement in climate change adaptation within the context of coastal resilience. Our approach aimed to enhance collaboration in environmental planning processes by leveraging modeling tools to facilitate learning about the complexity of the socioecological system. A comprehensive questionnaire survey was conducted using Google Forms. The questionnaire included clear instructions and structured response formats, aiming to gather stakeholder perspectives on adaptation measures and define action thresholds in response to climate uncertainties. A total of 47 responses were received and included consulting firm professionals, freelance engineers, local authority professionals, port authority professionals, researchers, and university professors in the field of coastal management. The survey data were analyzed using statistical methods in SPSS to identify key insights and patterns. The survey findings offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of adaptation measures, threshold perceptions for initiating adaptation actions, and the dynamics of stakeholder perspectives. Therefore, the importance of incorporating diverse perspectives in climate change adaptation efforts is highlighted. As answers tend to vary for different stakeholder occupations, the urge for collaboration in future decision-making procedures is highlighted. By bridging the gap between stakeholder input and climate change adaptation measures, this study demonstrates the potential of participatory approaches in enhancing resilience and fostering sustainable development in coastal regions vulnerable to climate change.

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A stakeholder-informed modelling study of Greece's energy transition amidst an energy crisis: The role of natural gas and climate ambition

Cited by 11 publications

References 75 publications

A Fuzzy Cognitive Map and PESTEL-Based Approach to Mitigate CO2 Urban Mobility: The Case of Larissa, Greece

A Fuzzy Cognitive Map and PESTEL-Based Approach to Mitigate CO2 Urban Mobility: The Case of Larissa, Greece

"Twinp2g: A Digital Twin Architecture for Optimal Power-to-Gas Planning"

Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Coastal Resilience: A Stakeholder Surveys

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