Trajectories of social vulnerability during the Soufrière Hills volcanic crisis

Hicks, Anna; Few, Roger

doi:10.1186/s13617-015-0029-7

Cited by 47 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…This underpinning data included: (i) historical analyses of previous eruptions in St Vincent (Pyle, Barclay and Armijos 2017); (ii) group discussion data from earlier STREVA 'forensic' 6 workshops held in St Vincent and Colombia in 2014 ; (iii) interview data with project partners and communities (Armijos and Few 2016, Wilkinson et al 2016, and (iv) learning from other volcanic settings (e.g. Montserrat and Ecuador) (Hicks and Few 2015, Wilkinson 2015, Stone et al 2014, Hicks et al 2014, Few, Armijos and Barclay 2017. The breadth and depth of data, as well as our strong relationships with communities in both settings, was essential to position the films within each specific socio-cultural context and to ensure the aims of the films were both relevant to, and met the needs of the audience.…”

Section: Conceptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk communication films: Process, product and potential for improving preparedness and behaviour change

Hicks

Armijos

Barclay

et al. 2017

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

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The medium of film is well established for education and communication about hazardous phenomena as it provides engaging ways to directly view hazards and their impacts. Empirical analysis can help to understand films' effectiveness in informing populations at risk and catalysing action to reduce risk.Using volcanic eruptions as a focus, an evidence-based methodology was devised to create, use, and track the outcomes of digital film tools designed to raise hazard and risk awareness, and develop preparedness efforts. Experiences from two contrasting eruptions were documented, with the secondary purpose of fostering social and cultural memories of eruptions, developed in response to demand from at-risk communities during field-based research. The films were created as a partnership with local volcano monitoring scientists and at-risk populations who, consequently, became the leading focus of the films, thus offering a substantial contrast to other types of hazard communication.The films were analysed by sharing them with at-risk communities and evaluating the immediate influence on learning and affect. Results indicated that the use of local content and actors to share experiences and teach valuable lessons were inspirational. Recognizable faces and spaces helped to convey disaster risk reduction messages. They This study demonstrated the effectiveness of co-production in the design and execution of intervention strategies for volcanic risk reduction. Co-production of films with local agencies resulted in products that were contextually appropriate, meaningful for audiences, and useful risk communication tools. Acronyms

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Section: Conceptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk communication films: Process, product and potential for improving preparedness and behaviour change

Hicks

Armijos

Barclay

et al. 2017

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

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“…The efforts in communicating towards the lay public, in order to build "trust" amongst the population, should be decoupled from the background of the involved scientist (deterministic or probabilistic). Communication protocols are independent of the applied scientific method, and researchers should become more skilled to transmit their information openly towards the public, with the awareness of the uncertainty their information contains (Hicks and Few 2015).…”

Section: Trust In Scientists?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Deterministic Versus Probabilistic Volcano Monitoring: Not “or” But “and”

Rouwet

Constantinescu

Sandri

2017

Advances in Volcanology

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Volcanic eruption forecasting and hazard assessment are multi-disciplinary processes with scientific and social implications. Our limited knowledge and the randomness of the processes behind a volcanic eruption yield the need to quantify uncertainties on volcano dynamics. With deterministic and probabilistic methods for volcanic hazard assessment not always being in agreement, we propose a combined approach that bridges the two schools of thoughts in order to improve future volcano monitoring. Expert elicitation has proven to be an effective way to bind deterministic research within a probabilistic framework aiming to reduce the uncertainties related to any hazard forecast; yet, numerous exercises based on expert elicitation have revealed that the attempt to reduce uncertainties led to the creation of new ones, often unquantifiable, created by human nature and reasoning during stressful situations. Such reasoning ignores the complexity of volcanic processes and the fact that every scenario has a probability to occur. The recent probabilistic methods and tools marry probabilistic and deterministic approaches and lead to unprecedented models. Nevertheless, probabilistic hazard assessment is often misunderstood as not all of the researchers involved have backgrounds in such matters. A probabilistic method cannot stand-alone as it depends on data input obtained by deterministic approaches. We propose that, given the symbiotic relationship between the two methods, a probabilistic framework can play a role of moderator between various deterministic disciplines, thus creating a coherent environment for discussion and debate among seismologists, geodesists, geochemists. This can be achieved by training all scientists involved in hazard assessment, probability theory and data interpretation, while at least one group member objectively uses the information provided to produce the probabilities. Hence, numerical outcomes can be interpreted transparently as they represent the quantification of experts' knowledge and related uncertainties. A probabilistic method that incorporates the joint opinions of a group of multi-disciplinary researchers facilitates a more straightforward way of communicating scientific information to decision-makers. Resumen extendidLa previsión de erupciones volcánicas y la evaluación del peligro son procesos multidisciplinarios, con implicaciones tanto científicas como sociales. Nuestro conocimiento limitado de los procesos detrás de una erupción volcánica y su aleatoriedad genera la necesidad de cuantificar las incertidumbres sobre las dinámicas del volcán y de mejorar la política de la toma de decisiones durante una crisis volcánica. Sabiendo que existe un desacuerdo sobre el uso de métodos determinísticos o probabilísticos durante la evaluación de la peligrosidad volcánica, revisamos ambos métodos y proponemos un enfoque que sirve como puente entre las dos escuelas de pensamiento y que pueda mejorar las capacidades de monitoreo volcánico en el futuro, hacia el reconocimiento en tiempo de m...

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“…They lack the institutions and systems needed to anticipate and cope with hazards, including effective early warning systems (EWS) and systems for managing evacuations and the distribution of basic relief support [32,33]. Vulnerability levels are high relative to other countries because of factors including low educational achievement, limited employment opportunities, difficult market conditions and restricted disaster recovery options [15,18,28]. In the Caribbean and elsewhere, lack of adherence to building codes and the use of sub-standard materials for informal construction exacerbate both exposure and vulnerability, as do high levels of poverty, socioeconomic exclusion and environmental degradation [34].…”

Section: Limits To Growth In Small Island Developing Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Dilemmas of Risk-Sensitive Development on a Small Volcanic Island

et al. 2016

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Abstract:In the Small Islands Developing State (SIDS) of St Vincent and the Grenadines in the Caribbean, the most destructive disasters in terms of human casualties have been the multiple eruptions of La Soufrière volcano situated in the north of St Vincent. Despite this major threat, people continue to live close to the volcano and national development plans do not include risk reduction measures for volcanic hazards. This paper examines the development options in volcanic SIDS and presents a number of conundrums for disaster risk management on the island of St Vincent. Improvements in monitoring of volcanic hazards and ongoing programmes to enhance communications systems and encourage community preparedness planning have increased awareness of the risks associated with volcanic hazards, yet this has not translated into more risk-informed development planning decisions. The current physical development plan in fact promotes investment in infrastructure in settlements located within the zone designated very high-hazard. However, this is not an anomaly or an irrational decision: severe space constraints in SIDS, as well as other historical social and economic factors, limit growth and options for low-risk development. Greater attention needs to be placed on developing measures to reduce risk, particularly from low-intensity hazards like ash, limiting where possible exposure to volcanic hazards and building the resilience of communities living in high-risk areas. This requires planning for both short-and longer-term impacts from renewed activity. Volcanic SIDS face multiple hazards because of their geography and topography, so development plans should identify these interconnected risks and options for their reduction, alongside measures aimed at improving personal preparedness plans so communities can learn to live with risk.

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Trajectories of social vulnerability during the Soufrière Hills volcanic crisis

Cited by 47 publications

References 31 publications

Risk communication films: Process, product and potential for improving preparedness and behaviour change

Risk communication films: Process, product and potential for improving preparedness and behaviour change

Deterministic Versus Probabilistic Volcano Monitoring: Not “or” But “and”

The Dilemmas of Risk-Sensitive Development on a Small Volcanic Island

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