Towards an improved decision-making process to better cope with uncertainties following a nuclear accident

Abstract

An emergency situation is subject to multiple sources of uncertainties which should be identified in advance in order to improve the emergency and recovery management, and so optimally foster the living conditions of the population and the quality of their environment. In this context, the Work Package 4 of the European Research Project CONFIDENCE aimed at identifying and reducing uncertainties which could emerge in decision-making processes, in order to improve the preparedness and response after a nuclear accident. To that end, stakeholder panels have been set up in several European countries to collect their views and concerns regarding the decisions to be taken in the event of a nuclear crisis (e.g. evacuation, food restrictions, etc.). More particularly, the implementation of these panels allowed the researchers to (i) identify the main uncertainties that may hamper decision-making processes and to (ii) evaluate the influence of prior decisions made during the emergency phase over the medium to long-term evolution of the situation. Based on these discussions, the various types of uncertainties raised by the national panels have been analysed in order to suggest recommendations to better consider them and to improve the decision-making processes. This paper aims to detail the recommendations resulting from the panels discussions.

CONFIDENCE dissemination meeting: Summary on the scenario-based workshop

“…The participants expressed their views and suggestions to improve this first set of recommendations. Working groups' leaders collected these comments, which have been considered to finalize the recommendations presented in more details in Durand et al (2020).…”

Stakeholder involvement through national panels and surveys to address the issues and uncertainties arising in the preparedness and management of the transition phase

“…Preferences and expectations of local and national stakeholders have been collected together with key criteria/attributes influencing the development and preference setting of the recovery strategies within the transition phase. From these results, recommendations to deal with and try to reduce such uncertainties were elaborated upon with the additional aim to identify gaps and further research needs (see Durand et al, 2020).…”

“…The results obtained in each national panel were crossanalysed and compiled in a structured grid according to the main issues, criteria and uncertainties identified by the panels (see Durand et al, 2020;Montero et al, 2020).…”

Uncertainties confronting stakeholders and decision-makers in planning intervention in urban and agricultural scenarios in the transition phase of a radiological emergency

“…as well as identify "non-technical" sources of uncertainty. It was then the purpose of subsequent tasks in the work package to investigate how stakeholders process all the information and uncertainties, both technical and non-technical (Durand et al, 2020;Montero et al, 2020). Urban and agricultural scenarios were investigated separately and this is justified since radiological processes, pathways of exposure and the recovery options that may be deployed are generally different.…”