Total and Partial Prevalence of Cancer Across Kerman Province, Iran, in 2014, Using an Adapted Generalized Network Scale-Up Method

Vardanjani, Hossein Molavi; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar

doi:10.7314/apjcp.2015.16.13.5493

Cited by 16 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 18 publications

(20 reference statements)

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“…Our current estimates are relatively less than our previously estimates for Kerman province. [ 9 ] Although we used a different method in the previous study, but believe that higher incidence of LC in Kerman leads to a higher prevalence for it and could explain this inconsistency.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

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Lung Cancer Prevalence in Iran by Histologic Subtypes

et al. 2017

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Background:Prevalence statistics are essential for cancer control in addition to incidence and mortality data. As we know, there is no published report regarding lung cancer (LC) prevalence in Iran. Herein, we provide model-based estimates of limited time LC prevalence in Iran, 2015.Materials and Methods:Incidence numbers of LC were extracted from Iranian National Cancer Registry reports for 2003–2009. Trends were analyzed by joinpoint regression, assuming a logarithmic poisson model. Incidence numbers were projected up to 2015, using linear regression models which were trained by corrected annual percentage changes. A Monte Carlo-based model was generated, and absolute survival rates, number of incident cases, and incompleteness of Iranian cancer registry for LC were included into it. Limited-time prevalence (within 1, 2–3, and 4–5 years from diagnosis) and its respective 95% uncertainty level (UL) were estimated by age, gender, and histopathological type.Results:Five-year prevalence was estimated to be 4.21 (95% UL: 3.37–5.38) per 100,000 adult person, with a male:female ratio of 2.01. Estimated number of patients within 1, 2–3, and 4–5 years from diagnosis were 1871 (1497–2392), 993 (770–1285), and 420 (322–550), respectively. Most prevalent form of LC were squamous cell carcinoma (802; 579–999) and adenocarcinoma (319; 230–389) in males and females, respectively.Conclusion:According to our results, the most plausible estimates of number of alive LC patients within initial treatment, clinical follow-up, and cure phases were 2392, 1285, and 550 cases in Iran in 2015.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…[ 8 ] As we know, there is no national report on the LC prevalence in Iran but only two regional reports from Kerman and Isfahan. [ 9 10 ]…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lung Cancer Prevalence in Iran by Histologic Subtypes

et al. 2017

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“…However, to the best of our knowledge, limited information is available regarding the incidence of CRC in Iran [23,35,36]. This shortcoming is mainly due to the lack of population-based cancer information in Iran [37].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Rising Secular Trends of Incidence and Partial Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran: Join point regression

Vali

Vardanjani

Hassanzadeh

2019

Preprint

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Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) is expected to be of the most common cancers in developing countries, where the its mortality is high and less services are avaiable for cancer survivors. Methods To assess the incidence rate, firstly, the incidence rates of colon and rectum reported in the two sites of http://globocan.iarc.fr and http://healthdata.org from 1990 to 2017 were extracted based on gender and age groups (less than 40 and more than 40 years old), In the next step, according to the incidence and APC(annual percentage change) provided in the previous step, we predicted the incidence for the next years according to the formulas. we Estimated the prevalence of 1-year, 2-3 year and 4-5 year using survival and incidence according to the formula. At the end we predicted prevalence by 2030 in Iran. Results In our study, AAPC(average annual percentage change) for women was found to be 4.07%(CI: 3.76-4.39) in all age groups and AAPC= 4.30%(CI: 4.14-4.47) for men in all age groups. the predicted incidence in the group under 40 that in men it reaches from about 12 to 15 per 100,000 and for women from about 10 to 11 per 100,000. While the increase of 100/ 10000 was found in the women over 40 years and the increase of 150/100,000 was obtained in men. And In all groups, predicted prevalence rate increases. In the group under 40 and the group over 40 prevalence increase about 2000 and 26000 numbers respectively in women and men from 2000 to 2030. Conclusions With regard to the above mentioned cases, there is a strong need for cancers registry, which is the population information and follow-up of patients, and the establishment of research institutes to determine the basic needs of patients.

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“…However, as we know, data on the CRC prevalence in Iran are very scarce. [ 9 10 11 ] This scarcity is mainly due to the lack of a long-lasting national population-based cancer registry in Iran.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015–2020

et al. 2018

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Background:Population aging and more prevalent westernized lifestyle would be expected to result in a markedly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the future years. The aim of this study is to estimate the limited-time prevalence of CRC in Iran between 2015 and 2020.Materials and Methods:Aggregated CRC incidence data were extracted from the Iranian national cancer registry (IR.NCR) reports for 2003–2009 and from GLOBOCAN-2012 database for 2012. Incidence trends were analyzed by age groups, genders, histopathologic, and topographic subtypes to estimate annual percentage changes. Incidence was projected for 2020. The prevalence was estimated applying an adopted version of a previously introduced equation to estimate limited–time prevalence based on the incidence and survival data. Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were applied to estimate 95% uncertainty levels (ULs). In each scenario, incidence, survival, annual percentage changes, and completeness of case ascertainment at IR.NCR were replaced under pre-assumed distributions.Results:Number of estimated within 1, 2-3 and 4-5-year CRC patients in 2015 were 13676 (95% UL: 10051–18807), 20964 (15835–28268), and 14485 (11188–19293), respectively. Estimated 5-year prevalence for 2020 (99463; 75150–134744) was 2.03 times of that for 2015. Highest 5-year prevalence was estimated in ages 55–59 for females and 75 + for males. Adenocarcinoma (41376; 31227 55898) was the most prevalent histologic subtype. The most prevalent tumor location was colon (30822, 23262–41638).Conclusion:A substantial growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors is highly expected for future years in Iran. Establishment of specialized institutes is highly recommended to provide medical and especially social supports for Iranian CRC survivors.

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Total and Partial Prevalence of Cancer Across Kerman Province, Iran, in 2014, Using an Adapted Generalized Network Scale-Up Method

Cited by 16 publications

References 18 publications

Lung Cancer Prevalence in Iran by Histologic Subtypes

Lung Cancer Prevalence in Iran by Histologic Subtypes

Evaluating the Rising Secular Trends of Incidence and Partial Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran: Join point regression

Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015–2020

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