Evaluating the Rising Secular Trends of Incidence and Partial Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran: Join point regression

Abstract

Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) is expected to be of the most common cancers in developing countries, where the its mortality is high and less services are avaiable for cancer survivors. Methods To assess the incidence rate, firstly, the incidence rates of colon and rectum reported in the two sites of http://globocan.iarc.fr and http://healthdata.org from 1990 to 2017 were extracted based on gender and age groups (less than 40 and more than 40 years old), In the next step, according to the incidence and APC(annual percentage change) provided in the previous step, we predicted the incidence for the next years according to the formulas. we Estimated the prevalence of 1-year, 2-3 year and 4-5 year using survival and incidence according to the formula. At the end we predicted prevalence by 2030 in Iran. Results In our study, AAPC(average annual percentage change) for women was found to be 4.07%(CI: 3.76-4.39) in all age groups and AAPC= 4.30%(CI: 4.14-4.47) for men in all age groups. the predicted incidence in the group under 40 that in men it reaches from about 12 to 15 per 100,000 and for women from about 10 to 11 per 100,000. While the increase of 100/ 10000 was found in the women over 40 years and the increase of 150/100,000 was obtained in men. And In all groups, predicted prevalence rate increases. In the group under 40 and the group over 40 prevalence increase about 2000 and 26000 numbers respectively in women and men from 2000 to 2030. Conclusions With regard to the above mentioned cases, there is a strong need for cancers registry, which is the population information and follow-up of patients, and the establishment of research institutes to determine the basic needs of patients.