Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015–2020

Abstract

Background:Population aging and more prevalent westernized lifestyle would be expected to result in a markedly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the future years. The aim of this study is to estimate the limited-time prevalence of CRC in Iran between 2015 and 2020.Materials and Methods:Aggregated CRC incidence data were extracted from the Iranian national cancer registry (IR.NCR) reports for 2003–2009 and from GLOBOCAN-2012 database for 2012. Incidence trends were analyzed by age groups, genders, histopathologic, and topographic subtypes to estimate annual percentage changes. Incidence was projected for 2020. The prevalence was estimated applying an adopted version of a previously introduced equation to estimate limited–time prevalence based on the incidence and survival data. Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were applied to estimate 95% uncertainty levels (ULs). In each scenario, incidence, survival, annual percentage changes, and completeness of case ascertainment at IR.NCR were replaced under pre-assumed distributions.Results:Number of estimated within 1, 2-3 and 4-5-year CRC patients in 2015 were 13676 (95% UL: 10051–18807), 20964 (15835–28268), and 14485 (11188–19293), respectively. Estimated 5-year prevalence for 2020 (99463; 75150–134744) was 2.03 times of that for 2015. Highest 5-year prevalence was estimated in ages 55–59 for females and 75 + for males. Adenocarcinoma (41376; 31227 55898) was the most prevalent histologic subtype. The most prevalent tumor location was colon (30822, 23262–41638).Conclusion:A substantial growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors is highly expected for future years in Iran. Establishment of specialized institutes is highly recommended to provide medical and especially social supports for Iranian CRC survivors.

Predicting mortality and recurrence in colorectal cancer: Comparative assessment of predictive models

“…The study highlights the highest 5-year prevalence in specific age groups, with adenocarcinoma being the most prevalent histologic subtype. Conclusively, the study suggests a significant growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors in Iran in the coming years [ 5 , 6 ]. Risk factors for CRC encompass insufficient exercise, a high BMI, a diet rich in fats, alcohol consumption, limited fruit and vegetable intake, tobacco use, a family history of CRC, and the use of certain pharmaceutical agents, such as oral contraceptives and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) [ 7 ].…”

Trends of Colorectal Cancer Epidemiology and Morphology in Tehran Metropolis, Iran from 2006 to 2015

“…The annual percentage changes (APC) in age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) increased in both sexes from 2003 to 2008 (8). The 5-year prevalence of CRC in females aged between 55 and 59 years old and males aged older than 75 years was estimated 2.03 times for 2020 than of 2015 (15). Tehran had the highest ASR (20.58 per 100 000 person-years) of CRC in comparison to other Iran provinces (16).…”

Health-Promoting Lifestyle among the Survivors of Colorectal Cancer: An Integrative Review

“…For instance, CRC survivors are at great risk for cancer recurrence after treatment, secondary malignancies, cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, osteoporosis, psychological disorders, and functional problems. 3,4 Lifestyle is a significant factor affecting cancer-related outcomes. By definition, lifestyle refers to a series of daily activities which individuals consider as acceptable routine behaviors and have significant contribution to health.…”