To err again is human: exploring a bidirectional relationship between pressure and performance failure feedback

Abstract

Background and Objectives: While the potentially negative effects of pressure on skilled performance have been well studied in laboratory-based research, theoretically driven questions based on real-world performance data are lacking. Design: We aimed to test the predictions of the newly developed Attentional Control Theory: Sport (ACTS), using archived play-by-play data from the past seven seasons of the National Football League (American Football). Methods: An additive scoring system was developed to characterize the degree of pressure on 212,356 individual offensive plays and a Bayesian regression model was used to test the relationship between performance, pressure and preceding negative outcomes, as outlined in ACTS. Results: There was found to be a clear increase in the incidence of failures on high pressure plays (odds ratio = 1.20), and on plays immediately following a previous play failure (odds ratio = 1.09). Additionally, a combined interactive effect of previous failure and pressure indicated that the feedback effect of negative outcomes was greater when pressure was already high (odds ratio = 1.10), in line with the predictions of ACTS. Conclusions: These findings reveal the importance of exploring momentary changes in pressure in real-world sport settings, and the role of failure feedback in influencing the pressure-performance relationship.

Psychological pressure and compounded errors during elite-level tennis

“…The findings of Harris et al (2019) did not, however, permit examination of individual differences and trait level factors in coping strategies and choking responses that might moderate the effects of situational pressure. One potentially important trait discussed in the sport psychology literature is that of habitual 'clutch' performers (Hibbs, 2010;Otten, 2009;Schweickle et al, 2021).…”

“…Examining large, real-world data sets (e.g., as in Harris et al, 2019;Hickman & Metz, 2015;Toma, 2017) offers greater statistical power and opportunities to test predictions about pressure outside of the artificial laboratory environment, where 'blocked' experimental conditions are unlikely to reveal anything about the drivers of anxiety and its effect on the critical occasions when performance truly matters. For instance, Toma (2017) found evidence of widespread choking in both men's and women's college and professional basketball, with players less likely to successfully execute free throws in the final minutes of close games.…”

“…A recent study supported this error dependency effect in elite sport (American Football), finding that when one error was made, the probability of making another on the subsequent play increased (Harris et al, 2019). Harris et al examined all plays from the National Football League (NFL) over seven seasons, using a scoring system to identify the occurrence of high-pressure plays and substantial errors.…”

“…Crucially for the predictions of ACTS, the detrimental effects of psychological pressure and a preceding error also had an interactive effect, causing the greatest disruption when a play was at a crucial moment of the game and preceded by an error. Indeed, the probability that one error would follow another almost doubled from 27% on low pressure plays to 50% on high pressure plays (Harris et al, 2019).…”

The effect of crowd removal on goal scoring in professional football

“…The benefit of this approach is that a large real-world data set from elite sport can be studied in a way that would not otherwise be possible. This is an approach that has been used previously to examine the effects of prior results, match conditions and situational pressure in elite sport (Deutscher et al, 2018;Harris et al, 2019;Hickman & Metz, 2015;Toma, 2017). The disadvantage of this approach is the difficulty with measuring and inferring mechanisms, a limitation of the work the we discuss in detail.…”