Time-series trend analysis and farmer perceptions of rainfall and temperature in northwestern Ethiopia

Marie, Mequannt; Yirga, Fikadu; Haile, Mebrahtu; Ehteshammajd, Shaghayegh; Azadi, Hossein; Scheffran, Jürgen

doi:10.1007/s10668-020-01192-0

Cited by 12 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…In the present study, households also perceived climate variability and drought occurrence based on fundamental climate attributes such as decreased rainfall and increased temperature over the past 25 years. This study's findings are also in line with those of Marie et al's [56] study findings, in that in northwest Ethiopia, over the past 30 years, 78% of farmers perceived climate variability and drought occurrence as decreasing rainfall patterns, whereas 81% perceived increasing temperature trends. The same authors further argued that the farmers in northwest Ethiopia are aware of the main indicators of climate-induced drought in terms of the fluctuation of the rainy period, which are linked with the current findings.…”

Section: Meteorological Data Of the Study Areasupporting

confidence: 92%

Rural Household Perception of Drought Occurrence and Its Influence on Livelihood Strategy in Northeast Ethiopia

Molla,

Zeleke,

Tamiru

2024

Advances in Agriculture

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Globally, drought is occurring more frequently today, which is considerably affecting rural households’ agricultural productivity and socioeconomic development. Understanding households’ perceptions of drought is thus important for resilience-building work because people act based on their views, and the resilience of people is tied to their views, knowledge, culture, and attitudes. This study analyses the rural households’ perceptions of drought occurrence and its influence on livelihood strategies in northeast Ethiopia. This was achieved through a mixed-methods approach with a concurrent research design. The quantitative data were collected from 354 randomly selected household heads, whereas the qualitative data were collected from purposefully selected household head focus group discussions (FGDs) and key informants. The quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, whereas the qualitative data were analyzed using thematic data analysis techniques. The results show that climate variability and drought occurrence were perceived by the households as decreasing rainfall, increasing temperature, variations in rainfall onset and cessation, variations in heat waves and cold waves, heavy rainfall events, changes in sporadic rain, a lesser coverage of clouds, and adverse weather events. Within the last 25 years, households have perceived the number of extreme, severe, or moderate droughts to be increasing. Household perceptions of temperature changes match meteorological records, but their perceptions of rainfall changes do not. The drought hampered income sources, brought food shortages, and threatened family well-being. It increased water stress, livestock morbidity and mortality, insect invasions, fire outbreaks, grazing resource depletion, abnormal migration, school dropout rates, and human health problems. The findings have important policy implications to mitigate drought risk, enhance drought adaptation, and develop pathways out of drought vulnerability, so it is worthwhile to harmonize the household perceptions with climate change policy.

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Section: Meteorological Data Of the Study Areasupporting

confidence: 92%

Rural Household Perception of Drought Occurrence and Its Influence on Livelihood Strategy in Northeast Ethiopia

Molla,

Zeleke,

Tamiru

2024

Advances in Agriculture

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“…To visualize the time-series variation of seasonal rainfall, standard rainfall anomalies were plotted against time (in years). A simple linear regression was used to identify and characterize the long-term trend of temperature variability values on an annual time scale using the equation below [34]:…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Salinity Constraints for Small-Scale Agriculture and Impact on Adaptation in North Aceh, Indonesia

et al. 2022

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We investigated the perceived effects of salinity on farming practices, income, and challenges for crop production in Blang Nibong village in North Aceh, Indonesia. We surveyed 120 smallholder farmers chosen in consultation with local leaders considering their agricultural activities and salinity susceptibility. Farmers’ perceptions of major crop production constraints (e.g., salinity) and potential adaptation strategies were assessed using open and closed questions. The study revealed that farmers in the study region primarily grew rain-fed rice using traditional monoculture. Salinity was identified as the primary crop production constraint by all respondents, resulting in plant mortality, decreased soil health and water quality, limited plant growth, and low yields. Additionally, salinity has reduced the arable area (>0.5 ha), resulting in lower total production. The implications of the salinity were further corroborated by the low farmers’ income. In fact, farming activities are not contributing positively to farmers’ income as the results revealed off-farm activities (77%) as the main source of income. Based on the farmer’s current activities to overcome salinity problems on their farms, they were clustered into adaptive and non-adaptive farmers. The non-adaptive group prefers to convert their land to pasture (81%), whereas the adaptive group prefers to improve the irrigation system (77%).

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“…Both hydrological and meteorological data were categorized into monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales. Mann-Kendall, modified Mann-Kendall, Sen's slope estimator, and Pettitt's tests were performed to identify the trends in the rainfall data and streamflow data to compute their magnitudes and to detect change points in the time series data using XLSTAT software (available at https://www.xlstat.com/en/, accessed on 5 August 2022) [34]. In addition, 5 extreme rainfall indices were calculated using the RClimdex software (available at https://www.climdex.org/, accessed on 9 August 2022) [35] and computed trends and magnitudes were found using MK and Sen's slope tests.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and Variabilities in Rainfall and Streamflow: A Case Study of the Nilwala River Basin in Sri Lanka

et al. 2022

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Rainfall is one of the dominating climatic parameters that affect water availability. Trend analysis is of paramount significance to understand the behavior of hydrological and climatic variables over a long timescale. The main aim of the present study was to identify trends and analyze existing linkages between rainfall and streamflow in the Nilwala River Basin (NRB) of Southern Sri Lanka. An investigation of the trends, detection of change points and streamflow alteration, and linkage between rainfall and streamflow were carried out using the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope test, Pettitt’s test, indicators of hydrological alteration (IHA), and Pearson’s correlation test. Selected rainfall-related extreme climatic indices, namely, CDD, CWD, PRCPTOT, R25, and Rx5, were calculated using the RClimdex software. Trend analysis of rainfall data and extreme rainfall indices demonstrated few statistically significant trends at the monthly, seasonal, and annual scales, while streamflow data showed non-significant trends, except for December. Pettitt’s test showed that Dampahala had a higher number of statistically significant change points among the six rainfall stations. The Pearson coefficient correlation showed a strong-to–very-strong positive relationship between rainfall and streamflow. Generally, both rainfall and streamflow showed non-significant trend patterns in the NRB, suggesting that rainfall had a higher impact on streamflow patterns in the basin. The historical trends of extreme climatic indices suggested that the NRB did not experience extreme climates. The results of the present study will provide valuable information for water resource planning, flood and disaster mitigation, agricultural operations planning, and hydropower generation in the NRB.

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Time-series trend analysis and farmer perceptions of rainfall and temperature in northwestern Ethiopia

Cited by 12 publications

References 22 publications

Rural Household Perception of Drought Occurrence and Its Influence on Livelihood Strategy in Northeast Ethiopia

Rural Household Perception of Drought Occurrence and Its Influence on Livelihood Strategy in Northeast Ethiopia

Salinity Constraints for Small-Scale Agriculture and Impact on Adaptation in North Aceh, Indonesia

Trends and Variabilities in Rainfall and Streamflow: A Case Study of the Nilwala River Basin in Sri Lanka

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