Thunderstorm occurrence and characteristics in Central Europe under different synoptic conditions

Wapler, Kathrin; James, P.

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.07.011

Cited by 60 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…On that day, blocking was present over the Scandinavian and Baltic Sea region (BS case; grey outline in Figure 7a), which was concurrent with a southwesterly to southerly mid-tropospheric flow over the investigation area. This flow direction is typical for central Europe, which supports the development of thunderstorms, as this pattern favours the advection of convection-favouring air masses towards central Europe (Kapsch et al, 2012;Merino et al, 2014;Wapler and James, 2015;Nisi et al, 2016;Trefalt et al, 2018;Piper et al, 2019). Air masses characterised by high values of equivalent potential temperature up to 320 K (not shown) were advected from southeastern Europe to eastern Germany resulting in unstable conditions (SLI values between −2 and −6 K; Figure 8a) and high atmospheric moisture content (PW values between 25 and 40 kg/m 2 ; Figure 8b), which are both conducive to widespread thunderstorm formation (see Greene and Clark, 1972;Manzato, 2003;Kunz, 2007;Mohr, 2013).…”

Section: Case Studiessupporting

confidence: 56%

“…The synoptic situation creates the ideal environment for the development of a thunderstorm (e.g., Doswell et al, 1996). For example, Wapler and James (2015) identified various circulation types relevant for the occurrence of thunderstorms in central Europe on the basis of an objective method for classifying synoptic patterns. In all these patterns, thunderstorms move from southwest to northeast; thunderstorms moving from northwestern, northern or eastern directions are far less common.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Relationship between atmospheric blocking and warm‐season thunderstorms over western and central Europe

Mohr

Wandel

Lenggenhager

et al. 2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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A statistically significant link is presented between atmospheric blocking located over the eastern North Atlantic and northern Europe and warm‐season thunderstorm activity over western and central Europe. Lightning data from 2001 to 2014 were used to identify thunderstorm days and blocking events were extracted from the ERA‐Interim reanalysis using an objective identification algorithm. The statistical link between the two phenomena is established through odds ratio analysis. Two areas – one over the eastern part of the North Atlantic and one over the Baltic Sea – were identified as locations where blocking influences the occurrence of deep moist convection in parts of western and central Europe. Based on the mean ambient conditions on days with blocking in these two areas, well‐known dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms supporting or suppressing the development of thunderstorms were confirmed. The anticyclonic circulation of a block over the eastern part of the North Atlantic leads to a northerly to northwesterly advection of dry and stable air masses into Europe on the eastern flank of the block. In addition, these environmental conditions are on average associated with large‐scale subsidence of air masses (convection‐inhibiting conditions). In contrast, the southerly to southwesterly advection of warm, moist and unstable air masses on the western flank of a block over the Baltic Sea results in convection‐favouring conditions over western and central Europe. Both blocking situations are on average associated with weak wind speeds at mid‐tropospheric levels and with weak wind shear. As a consequence, thunderstorms related to atmospheric blocking over the Baltic Sea tend to be on average less organised.

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Section: Case Studiessupporting

confidence: 56%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship between atmospheric blocking and warm‐season thunderstorms over western and central Europe

Mohr

Wandel

Lenggenhager

et al. 2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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“…Most of the WMILX days in the respective sub‐regions are dominated by a southerly to southwesterly upper‐level flow as observed in other studies concerning thunderstorm or hail events in Europe (e.g. Kapsch et al ., ; Merino et al ., ; Wapler and James, ; Nisi et al ., ; Mohr et al ., ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Investigation of the temporal variability of thunderstorms in central and western Europe and the relation to large‐scale flow and teleconnection patterns

Piper

Kunz

Allen

et al. 2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The driving factors that influence the spatial and annual variability of thunderstorms across Europe are still poorly understood. Due to a lack of long‐term, reliable and consistent information about the occurrence of convective storms, a weather type classification has been developed that estimates thunderstorm probability from a combination of appropriate meteorological quantities on the mesoscale. Based on this approach, the temporal and spatial variability of convection‐favouring environments is investigated between 1958 and 2014 using a high‐resolution reanalysis dataset. To identify potential drivers for convective days, typical upper‐level flow patterns were deduced using a multivariate approach. Our results suggest a strong link between local‐scale thunderstorm activity and large‐scale flow and air mass properties, such as stability, moisture, or vertical lifting. For example, while all over central Europe the most prominent pattern is given by a southwesterly flow type over the respective area, distinct regional discrepancies regarding further favourable flow types are observed. The crucial role of large‐scale flow is further studied by assessing the relation between Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns and widespread convective activity. It is found that positive phases of the East Atlantic or Scandinavian patterns go along with a significant enhancement of convection‐favouring conditions in several European regions, which can be explained by anomalies in the large‐scale temperature and flow fields. Sea‐surface temperature over the Bay of Biscay likewise impacts the convective environment, with the largest positive effect over the western part of the study area.

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“…Many studies that employ the 20CR reanalysis employ the ensemble mean pressure field (e.g. Häkkinen et al, 2011;Jones et al, 2013;Wapler and James, 2015). However, there are clear inhomogeneities in these data around 1910 and 1950, corresponding to changes in the availability of surface observations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Australian east coast mid‐latitude cyclones in the 20th Century Reanalysis ensemble

Pepler

Fong

Alexander

2016

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Extratropical and subtropical cyclones, and their associated fronts, produce the majority of rainfall and extreme weather in the mid‐latitudes around the world. In the Southern Hemisphere in particular, where observations are sparse, we have limited knowledge of their long‐term variability and trends. While the long time period of the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) offers potential to assess longer‐term changes, the lack of observational data sets makes it difficult to assess its reliability. We assess the skill of the 20CR at representing mid‐latitude cyclones through a case study on the east coast of Australia. In this region, a comprehensive database has recently been developed of all severe floods between 1871 and 2012, of which >70% are associated with a coastal low‐pressure system. Through use of the full 20CR 56‐member ensemble, we are able to identify the majority of severe Australian east coast lows as early as the late 19th century, as well as recreate the cyclone tracks for some of the most severe events. The analysis shows that the full ensemble can be used for a long‐term assessment of interannual variability in cyclone frequency from at least 1911, despite large inhomogeneities in the ensemble mean pressure fields.

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Thunderstorm occurrence and characteristics in Central Europe under different synoptic conditions

Cited by 60 publications

References 27 publications

Relationship between atmospheric blocking and warm‐season thunderstorms over western and central Europe

Relationship between atmospheric blocking and warm‐season thunderstorms over western and central Europe

Investigation of the temporal variability of thunderstorms in central and western Europe and the relation to large‐scale flow and teleconnection patterns

Australian east coast mid‐latitude cyclones in the 20th Century Reanalysis ensemble

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