Three Centuries of Macro-Economic Statistics

Abstract

This paper describes the history of the national accounts starting from the incidental estimates by Petty, King and Davenant in the seventeenth century. The period 1930-1950 was a revolution in terms of the roles and uses of the national accounts, e.g. the discovery of input-output analysis, purchasing power parities and macro-econometric modelling and the Keynesian revolution in economic thinking. Most of these new uses also reinforced each other. These uses were also closely linked to the economic circumstances: the economic crisis of the thirties, the Second World War and the need for recovery afterwards stimulated an active role of the government. In 1947, for the first time a report on national accounting concepts was published by the UN. Some years later, the first official guidelines were published. Since then, national accounting theory and practice have increasingly been dominated by these guidelines. The period since the Second World War can thus best be labelled as 'the era of the international guidelines'. Many innovations in national accounting have been made since the Second World War. After gaining wider acceptance and maturity, a great deal of them has been included in the guidelines and some others have not. Since the Second World War, the national accounts statistics published by countries all over the world have changed drastically in scope, concepts, frequency and detail. These developments in national accounts practice do not have a straightforward relationship to the international guidelines. Due to the European Unification, the supply of national accounts in Europe has been improved dramatically.

Meaning and Measurement of National Accounts Statistics

“…1 This section is based on Bos (2008), Bos (2009a, chapters 2, 3 and 4) and Bos (2011). The best source on early national income estimates is still Studenski (1958); about early English estimates, see also Stone (1997).…”

“…7 About the relationship between economic theory and national accounting, see Bos (1993), Bos (1995), Kendrick (1995), Bos (1997), Bos (2009a) and Bos (2011). 4. Economic theory can clarify the relevance of national accounts statistics for various uses, e.g.…”

Economic Science and Political Influence

“…For example, in a vivid account, Bos () illustrates how the Keynesian paradigm influenced the design of national accounts:

The Keynesian type of analysis established a direct link between economic theory and national accounting as both came to use the same macro‐economic identities. A direct effect on national accounting was that another definition of national income and product became most popular:(…).

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“…For example, in a vivid account, Bos (2011) illustrates how the Keynesian paradigm influenced the design of national accounts:…”

On the Shoulders of Giants: Tracing Back the Intellectual Sources of the Current Debate on “GDP and Beyond” to the 19th Century

“…Hence, debt levels and burdens were usually calculated with reference to the total sum of revenues and made comparable across nations via per capita terms. The inadequacy of this method, given that the debt bearing capacity does not depend on the population size of a country but on its productive capacity, is only but one proof for the significant progress that the establishment of coherent national accounts and the concept of GDP provided to the disciplines of economics and economic statistics (see Bos 2011 for a comprehensive account of three centuries of macro-economic statistics).…”