Thinking inside the box: A participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery

Bryant, Benjamin P.; Lempert, Robert J.

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2009.08.002

Cited by 409 publications

(351 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…The basic idea is that the consequences of the various deep uncertainties associated with a simulation model are systematically explored through conducting series of computational experiments [14] and that the resulting data set is analyzed to identify regions in the uncertainty space that are of interest [12,15]. These identified regions can subsequently be communicated through e.g.…”

Section: Scenario Discovery: a Model Based Approach To Scenario Develmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A motivation for the use of scenario discovery is that the available literature on evaluating scenario studies has found that scenario development is difficult if the involved actors have diverging interests and world views [12,16]. Another shortcoming identified in this literature is that scenario development processes have a tendency to overlook surprising developments and discontinuities [17][18][19].…”

Section: Scenario Discovery: a Model Based Approach To Scenario Develmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…PRIM returns multiple explanations for the undesirable results. The analyst can select the explanation that covers most of the undesirable result -this is known as coverage in scenario discovery -while also being mainly valid for the undesirable results -this is known as density in scenario discovery [12]. To assess whether the inclusion of a given uncertain factor in a given explanation is statistically significant, one can use a onesided binomial test -this is sometimes also called the quasi-p value in scenario discovery [12].…”

Section: Open Exploration and Scenario Discoverymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, there is a need for a systematic approach to deal with the uncertainties in the complex container shipping system. The objective of this paper is to apply scenario discovery [12] in order to provide insight into the main vulnerabilities for the port of Rotterdam. The main question that we address in this paper is 'what are the key vulnerabilities for the competitive position of Rotterdam in the Bremen -Le Havre range?'…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

Halim

Kwakkel

Tavasszy

2016

Futures

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The global container transport system is changing quickly. Ports can be severely affected by these changes; therefore ports need insight into how the system might change and what the impact of this will be on their competitive position. Given the intrinsic complexity of the container transport system and the presence of a wide range of deeply uncertain factors affecting the system, we use an exploratory modeling approach to study future scenarios for the global container network. Using scenario discovery and worst-case discovery, we assess the implications of various uncertain factors on the competitive position of the port of Rotterdam. It is found that overall the competitive position of Rotterdam is quite robust with respect to the various uncertain factors. The main vulnerability is the quality of the hinterland connections. A modest deterioration of the quality of the hinterland connections, resulting in increased travel time, will result in a loss of throughput for Rotterdam.Keywords: scenario discovery, deep uncertainty, container shipping, global freight logistics IntroductionIn the past couple of decades, changes in the global container transport system have happened very rapidly. These changes have affected virtually all actors in the system, but the biggest impact has been on maritime ports. Ports have to be adaptive and resilient in responding to the changes in the global container shipping system. In today's globalized economy, ports need to ensure that they can function robustly, both as a transshipment node and as a gateway node for global trade flows. A failure to respond to changes in a timely manner often results in negative consequences for the port itself, as well as the economy of the region or country to which the port belongs. For example, the recent congestion at ports on the west coast of the US resulted in estimated damages for the economy of roughly 7 billion US dollar [1].Preparing a port for a wide range of possible future developments is a profound challenge. The global container shipping system is composed of many elements, with strong interdependencies. Often, small changes cascade quickly through the system, potentially resulting in substantial changes somewhere quite far removed from the initial small change. For example, recently Ultra Large Carrier Vessels have entered the market. Liner shipping companies have started to form alliances to pursue economies of scale. This in turn affects the frequency of port calls, the port rotation schedule, and the container volumes loaded and unloaded at each port. Changes not only take place on the seaside. Developments in the hinterland, such as the construction of new infrastructures such as road, railways, and intermodal facilities affect transport cost.The ongoing changes on both the seaside and the land size of seaports change the spatial flow of containers globally. The operation of the Trans-Siberian railways is an example of the importance of hinterland infrastructure on global container flows through ports [2]. A similar © 2016 Man...

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Section: Scenario Discovery: a Model Based Approach To Scenario Develmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Scenario Discovery: a Model Based Approach To Scenario Develmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Open Exploration and Scenario Discoverymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

Halim

Kwakkel

Tavasszy

2016

Futures

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…It has been acknowledged that the knowledge relevant for making a complex decision-such as, formulating an organization's strategy-is distributed among several individuals [40,41], and could possibly not be acquired by a single person [42]. The omniscient individual may not exist as humans are only (14) boundedly rational [28]. Human attention is a scarce resource, and employees of an organization allocate their attention to a limited number of internal and external elements [43].…”

Section: Example Of Focal Decision Local Factors and Driving Forcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Axiomatic foundation and a structured process for developing firm-specific Intuitive Logics scenarios

Phadnis

Caplice

Singh

et al. 2014

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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This paper presents an axiomatic foundation for developing firm-specific scenarios in the tradition of the Intuitive Logics School (ILS), a structured scenario creation process built on that foundation, and its application using a case study. The ILS outlines a high-level scenario-development process, but without a theoretical basis or prescriptions for executing different process steps. The lack of theoretical grounding has led to a proliferation of methods for developing scenarios, without any basis for comparing them. We fill this gap in the literature by articulating a set of axioms characterizing the nature of human knowledge about the business environment and scenarios as depictions of that environment. Using this theoretical foundation, we devise a structured process for developing scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate this process by applying it to develop four scenarios for a firm in the U.S. healthcare sector.

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Beyond optimality: Multistakeholder robustness tradeoffs for regional water portfolio planning under deep uncertainty

Herman

Zeff

Reed

et al. 2014

Water Resources Research

188

139

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While optimality is a foundational mathematical concept in water resources planning and management, ''optimal'' solutions may be vulnerable to failure if deeply uncertain future conditions deviate from those assumed during optimization. These vulnerabilities may produce severely asymmetric impacts across a region, making it vital to evaluate the robustness of management strategies as well as their impacts for regional stakeholders. In this study, we contribute a multistakeholder many-objective robust decision making (MORDM) framework that blends many-objective search and uncertainty analysis tools to discover key tradeoffs between water supply alternatives and their robustness to deep uncertainties (e.g., population pressures, climate change, and financial risks). The proposed framework is demonstrated for four interconnected water utilities representing major stakeholders in the ''Research Triangle'' region of North Carolina, U.S. The utilities supply well over one million customers and have the ability to collectively manage drought via transfer agreements and shared infrastructure. We show that water portfolios for this region that compose optimal tradeoffs (i.e., Pareto-approximate solutions) under expected future conditions may suffer significantly degraded performance with only modest changes in deeply uncertain hydrologic and economic factors. We then use the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) to identify which uncertain factors drive the individual and collective vulnerabilities for the four cooperating utilities. Our framework identifies key stakeholder dependencies and robustness tradeoffs associated with cooperative regional planning, which are critical to understanding the tensions between individual versus regional water supply goals. Cooperative demand management was found to be the key factor controlling the robustness of regional water supply planning, dominating other hydroclimatic and economic uncertainties through the 2025 planning horizon. Results suggest that a modest reduction in the projected rate of demand growth (from approximately 3% per year to 2.4%) will substantially improve the utilities' robustness to future uncertainty and reduce the potential for regional tensions. The proposed multistakeholder MORDM framework offers critical insights into the risks and challenges posed by rising water demands and hydrological uncertainties, providing a planning template for regions now forced to confront rapidly evolving water scarcity risks.

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Thinking inside the box: A participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery

Cited by 409 publications

References 18 publications

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

Axiomatic foundation and a structured process for developing firm-specific Intuitive Logics scenarios

Beyond optimality: Multistakeholder robustness tradeoffs for regional water portfolio planning under deep uncertainty

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