Axiomatic foundation and a structured process for developing firm-specific Intuitive Logics scenarios

Abstract

This paper presents an axiomatic foundation for developing firm-specific scenarios in the tradition of the Intuitive Logics School (ILS), a structured scenario creation process built on that foundation, and its application using a case study. The ILS outlines a high-level scenario-development process, but without a theoretical basis or prescriptions for executing different process steps. The lack of theoretical grounding has led to a proliferation of methods for developing scenarios, without any basis for comparing them. We fill this gap in the literature by articulating a set of axioms characterizing the nature of human knowledge about the business environment and scenarios as depictions of that environment. Using this theoretical foundation, we devise a structured process for developing scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate this process by applying it to develop four scenarios for a firm in the U.S. healthcare sector.

Scenario planning: An investigation of the construct and its measurement

“…Bowman (2015) similarly states that "an absence of theoretical belonging has left scenario-based approaches drifting between a multitude of frameworks." Phadnis, Caplice, Singh, and Sheffi (2014) note that scenario planning encompasses at least three schools of thought, 23 techniques for developing scenarios and 10 approaches to using them. The other observation is that the literature in this field reveals a large number of scenario development models and approaches.…”

“…The other observation is that the literature in this field reveals a large number of scenario development models and approaches. Phadnis, Caplice, Singh, and Sheffi (2014) note that scenario planning encompasses at least three schools of thought, 23 techniques for developing scenarios and 10 approaches to using them.…”

Rethinking supply chain strategy as a conceptual system

“…If the time horizon chosen for the new strategy is long relative to the clockspeed (Fine, 1998) of the industry where the business unit operates, it is conceivable that important changes may take place in the market, the industry and the world. For long time horizons, a visioning exercise, such as scenario planning (Phadnis et al, 2014, Sodhi, 2003, may be useful. Visioning is about anticipating the future business environment where the business unit and its supply chain may have to operate, its future challenges and opportunities.…”

A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company

“…For flexible strategic planning, the scenario plays an important role to provide different descriptive stories of the business environment and scenario planning can be applied as an effective approach to deal with a complex and rapidly changing business environment (Chermack, 2005;Geum et al, 2014). The scenario planning method is widely adopted by government, academia, researchers, and many different sectors, particularly in the public domain (Bañuls et al, 2013;Dong et al, 2013;Raford, 2015;Schoemaker et al, 2013;Weigand et al, 2014), energy (Fortes et al, 2015), healthcare (MacKay and Tambeau, 2013;Phadnis et al, 2014), telecommunications (Chang, 2015), and urban planning (Viguié et al, 2014;von Wirth et al, 2014), and is spreading to many other areas (Dorrestijn et al, 2014;O'Brien and Meadows, 2013;Palo and Tähtinen, 2011;Tapinos, 2013;von der Gracht and Darkow, 2010;Yuan et al, 2012). Moreover, some researchers have provided insight into generating future scenarios (Dong et al, 2013;Fortes et al, 2015;Phadnis et al, 2014;Raford, 2015;Viguié et al, 2014;von der Gracht and Darkow, 2010;von Wirth et al, 2014), sensing and interacting with the environment (e.g.…”

“…The scenario planning method is widely adopted by government, academia, researchers, and many different sectors, particularly in the public domain (Bañuls et al, 2013;Dong et al, 2013;Raford, 2015;Schoemaker et al, 2013;Weigand et al, 2014), energy (Fortes et al, 2015), healthcare (MacKay and Tambeau, 2013;Phadnis et al, 2014), telecommunications (Chang, 2015), and urban planning (Viguié et al, 2014;von Wirth et al, 2014), and is spreading to many other areas (Dorrestijn et al, 2014;O'Brien and Meadows, 2013;Palo and Tähtinen, 2011;Tapinos, 2013;von der Gracht and Darkow, 2010;Yuan et al, 2012). Moreover, some researchers have provided insight into generating future scenarios (Dong et al, 2013;Fortes et al, 2015;Phadnis et al, 2014;Raford, 2015;Viguié et al, 2014;von der Gracht and Darkow, 2010;von Wirth et al, 2014), sensing and interacting with the environment (e.g. emerging trends) Palo and Tähtinen, 2011;Raford, 2015;Ramírez et al, 2013;Schoemaker et al, 2013), conducting forecasting and foresight (Bañuls et al, 2013;Chang, 2015;Dorrestijn et al, 2014;Weigand et al, 2014;Yuan et al, 2012) as well as facilitating decision support and making Fortes et al, 2015;Parker et al, 2015;Ram and Montibeller, 2013;Wright et al, 2013).…”