Scenario planning: An investigation of the construct and its measurement

Abstract

Scenario‐planning academicians and practitioners have been observing for more than three decades the importance of this method in dealing with environmental uncertainty. However, there has been no valid scale that may help organizational leaders to act in practice. Our review of prior studies identifies some problems related to conceptualization, reliability, and validity of this construct. We address these concerns by developing and validating a measure of scenario planning based on Churchill's paradigm (Journal of Marketing Research, 1979, 16, 64–73). Our data analysis follows from a sample of 133 managers operating in the healthcare field in France. To validate our scale, we used three approaches: first, an exploratory factor analysis; second, an examination of psychometric proprieties of all dimensions; and third, a confirmatory factor analysis. The results of this study indicate that scenario planning is a multidimensional construct composed of three dimensions: information acquisition, knowledge dissemination, and scenario development and strategic choices.

Scenario Planning as Approach to Improve the Strategic Performance of Multinational Corporations (Mncs)

“…Many previous research and studies found that scenario planning is regarded as the most important element that influence the internal business processes within organization (Ramirez and Wilkinson 2016, Sarpong and Maclean 2011, van der Heijden 1996. As well, the findings revealed that the scenario planning has a significant positive relationship with learning and growth and it is in line with previous studies (Arafet and Ali 2018, Bennett et al 2016, Burt et al 2017, Glick et al 2012, Schwartz 1996, van der Heijden 1996. Finally, the findings of this study in general demonstrated that the scenario planning has a significant positive relationship with strategic performance.…”

“…There are several general benefits ascribed to scenario planning. Many scholars indicated that scenario planning helps to find innovative and robust solutions to address complex problems and uncertain futures (Arafet and Ali 2018, Bennett et al 2016, Burt et al 2017, Schwartz 1996, van der Heijden 1996. In addition, scenario planning enables managers to cope with uncertainty by helping to understand the environment and its systems, how to deal with potential problems by thinking through them, and by providing alternative mental models (Burt et al 2006, O'Brien and Meadows 2013, van der Heijden 1996.…”

“…Learning and growth focuses on organization's ability to solve problems, increase employees efficiency, and develop their capabilities and skills through training (Kaplan and Norton 1996). The results of previous studies found that scenario planning helps to find innovative and robust solutions to address complex problems and solve it in effective manner (Arafet and Ali 2018, Bennett et al 2016, Burt et al 2017, Schwartz 1996, van der Heijden 1996. In addition, scenario planning leads to enhance the efficiency of organization's management through the development of leadership capability and capacity (Glick et al 2012).…”

Extending the Data Stream Processing Strategy to Scenario Analysis

“…Bouhalleb and Smida [8] introduce a perspective about the scenario analysis in the health field. The authors sustain that the scenario planning is a multidimensional analysis and it is based on three main dimensions: the information gathering, knowledge spreading and scenario alternatives.…”

Exploring the relationship between scenario planning and strategic flexibility and complexity

“…While there is a wealth of literature in scenario planning (cf. Amer et al, 2013;Rawland and Sapaniol, 2017;Bowmen, 2015), research on the theory development and its benefits in practice have not yet become developed (Chermack, 2005;Derbyshire, 2016, Bouhalleb andSmida, 2018). In fact, a large body of research focuses on the description and improvement of different methods (see, for example, Amer et al, 2013;Bradfield et al, 2005).…”