The transmission and persistence of ‘urban legends’: Sociological application of age‐structured epidemic models

Abstract

This paper describes two related epidemic models of rumor transmission in an age-structured population. Rumors share with communicable disease certain basic aspects, which means that formal models of epidemics may be applied to the transmission of rumors. The results show that rumors may become entrenched very quickly and persist for a long time, even when skeptics are modeled to take an active role in trying to convince others that the rumor is false. This is a macrophenomeon, because individuals eventually cease to believe the rumor, but are replaced by new recruits. This replacement of former believers by new ones is an aspect of all the models, but the approach to stability is quicker, and involves smaller chance of extinction, in the model where skeptics actively try to counter the rumor, as opposed to the model where interest is naturally lost by believers. Skeptics hurt their own cause. The result shows that including age, or a variable for which age is a proxy (e.g. experience), can improve model fidelity and yield important insights.

A Stochastic Model for Population and Well-Being Dynamics

“…The Kermack-McKendrick model permits the study of the evolution of infectious diseases (Inaba, 2001) and epidemics of plant diseases (Segarra, Jeger, & Vandenbosch, 2001). In sociology, it is applied to study the transmission and persistence of urban legends (Noymer, 2001) and to predict and control violent riots (Patten, 1999). Moreover, Bacaër, Abdurahman, and Ye (2006) used a Kermack-McKendrick model to study the AIDS epidemic.…”

Modelo matemático para o estudo da propagação de informações por campanhas educativas e rumores

“…A similaridade existente entre o comportamento de rumores e de doenças epidêmicas é amplamente reconhecida nas literaturas das ciências sociais e de epidemias e, portanto, podemos classificar os Rumores como um tipo de "contágio comportamental". De forma geral, os Rumores são altamente contagiosos e o que os diferencia de outras partes da comunicação é a urgência na transmissão da informação (Noymer, 2001). …”

“…Podemos definir também que acreditar em um rumor e desejar espalhá-lo podem ser considerados idênticos, e podemos observar que um rumor pode persistir até depois que o desejo de propagá-lo diminui (Noymer, 2001). …”

“…A imunidade adquirida tem significado análogo tanto no estudo de rumores, como na epidemiologia e pode ser comparada à situação na qual, depois de infectado pelo rumor, por certo período de tempo, a pessoa começa a acreditar que foi enganada e deixa de acreditar na idéia e o rumor cessa (Noymer, 2001 …”

Mathematical modeling of childhood obesity from a social epidemic point of view for the spanish region of Valencia: numerical and analytical solutions.

“…The most discussed type of infection spread is the SIR-system, in which individuals are susceptible (S), infective (I) or removed/immune (R). The SIR epidemiology model is based on the flow of the individuals between the compartments S, I and R. In addition, several differential equations models have been proposed for modeling social behavior, such rumors, social behavior and ideologies (Brauer and Castillo-Chavez, 2001;Kawachi, 2008;Murray, 2002;Noymer, 2001;Santonja et al, 2008).…”