The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity

Williams, James H.; DeBenedictis, Andrew; Ghanadan, Rebecca; Mahone, Amber; Moore, Jack; Morrow, William R.; Price, S.; Torn, M. S.

doi:10.1126/science.1208365

Cited by 690 publications

(384 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…For example, SWITCH assumes bioenergy has 30 % lower carbon intensity than petroleum-based fuels today and improves to 80 % lower by 2050. PATHWAYS only includes biomass feedstocks produced in the U.S. that have a Bnet-zero^carbon intensity 15 on a lifecycle basis including corn stover, wheat straw, forest residues, forest thinning, and switchgrass (Williams et al 2012). CA-TIMES assumes a carbon intensity of 75-80 gCO 2 e/MJ for corn ethanol, 25-13 Light-duty vehicles are typically synonymous with private cars, or passenger vehicles.…”

Section: Contribution From Bioenergymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because some sectors cannot be electrified or are difficult to decarbonize (e.g., aviation, marine, heavy duty road freight, agricultural fertilizer, etc. ), GHG emissions from the electricity grid will likely need to be reduced beyond 80 % (Williams et al 2012;Nelson et al 2014;Yang et al 2015).…”

Section: Power Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The future expansion of the electricity grid poses both spatial and temporal challenges to energy planners (Hart and Jacobson 2011;Williams et al 2012;Nelson et al 2012;Wei et al 2013). The models examined here differ widely in their geographic scope and resolution.…”

Section: Power Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Like many jurisdictions throughout the world with long-term GHG targets, California is now focusing on developing post-2020 climate strategies (CARB 2014). To assist in this process, several research groups have built energy planning models for California that estimate the future trajectories of technologies, fuels, infrastructure, and/or economic impacts (Roland-Holst 2008;Williams et al 2012;Greenblatt 2015;Jacobson et al 2014;Nelson et al 2014;Wei et al 2014;Yang et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparison of low-carbon pathways for California

et al. 2015

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Jurisdictions throughout the world are contemplating greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies that will enable meeting long-term GHG targets. Many jurisdictions are now focusing on the 2020-2050 timeframe. We conduct an inter-model comparison of nine California statewide energy models with GHG mitigation scenarios to 2050 to better understand common insights across models, ranges of intermediate GHG targets (i.e., for 2030), necessary technology deployment rates, and future modeling needs for the state. The models (not including the Wind-Water-Solar model) ; the transportation sector is decarbonized using a mix of energy efficiency gains and alternative-fueled vehicles; and bioenergy is directed almost exclusively towards the transportation sector, accounting for a maximum of 40 % of transportation energy by 2050. Models suggest that without new policies, emissions from nonenergy sectors and from high-global-warming-potential gases may alone exceed California's 2050 GHG goal. Finally, future modeling efforts should focus on the: economic impacts and logistical feasibility of given scenarios, interactive effects between two or more climate policies, role of uncertainty in the state's long-term energy planning, and identification of pathways that achieve the dual goals of criteria pollutant and GHG emission reduction.

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Section: Contribution From Bioenergymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Power Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Power Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparison of low-carbon pathways for California

et al. 2015

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“…There is a growing body of literature emerging from business, industry, academia and the NGO sector setting out road maps and exploring options for how to achieve the targets in the Climate Change Act (Centre for Alternative Technology, 2010;Ekins, et al 2011;Jamasb and Pollitt, 2011;Nicholson, 2011;Skea et al, 2011;Williams et al, 2012;WWF, IPPR and RSPB, 2007). Systematic assessments for long-term policy analysis are challenging due to the complexity of planning across timeframes where many factors remain unknown (Lempert et al, 2003).…”

Section: Background To Decc's 2050 Calculator and Online Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon reduction scenarios for 2050: An explorative analysis of public preferences

Allen

Chatterton

2013

Energy Policy

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High‐resolution mapping of motor vehicle carbon dioxide emissions

et al. 2014

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A fuel-based inventory for vehicle emissions is presented for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and mapped at various spatial resolutions (10 km, 4 km, 1 km, and 500 m) using fuel sales and traffic count data. The mapping is done separately for gasoline-powered vehicles and heavy-duty diesel trucks. Emission estimates from this study are compared with the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) and VULCAN. All three inventories agree at the national level within 5%. EDGAR uses road density as a surrogate to apportion vehicle emissions, which leads to 20-80% overestimates of on-road CO 2 emissions in the largest U.S. cities. High-resolution emission maps are presented for Los Angeles, New York City, San Francisco-San Jose, Houston, and Dallas-Fort Worth. Sharp emission gradients that exist near major highways are not apparent when emissions are mapped at 10 km resolution. High CO 2 emission fluxes over highways become apparent at grid resolutions of 1 km and finer. Temporal variations in vehicle emissions are characterized using extensive day-and time-specific traffic count data and are described over diurnal, day of week, and seasonal time scales. Clear differences are observed when comparing light-and heavy-duty vehicle traffic patterns and comparing urban and rural areas. Decadal emission trends were analyzed from 2000 to 2007 when traffic volumes were increasing and a more recent period (2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) when traffic volumes declined due to recession. We found large nonuniform changes in on-road CO 2 emissions over a period of~5 years, highlighting the importance of timely updates to motor vehicle emission inventories.

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The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity

Abstract: TitleThe technology path to deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts by 2050: The pivotal role of electricity Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2mz2472z

Cited by 690 publications

References 20 publications

Comparison of low-carbon pathways for California

Comparison of low-carbon pathways for California

Carbon reduction scenarios for 2050: An explorative analysis of public preferences

High‐resolution mapping of motor vehicle carbon dioxide emissions

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