Carbon reduction scenarios for 2050: An explorative analysis of public preferences

Allen, Patricia; Chatterton, Tim

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.08.079

Cited by 17 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(16 reference statements)

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“…However, unlike the analysis reported by a previous study, which examined responses by a sample of self-selected respondents who accessed the tool online at its launch in 2011 29 , we did not find a preference for demand-side over supply-side changes. This might be due to the sample in this previous analysis being self-selected, potentially more engaged with environmental issues in advance, and hence also more inclined to accept aspects of personal change when using the tool.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, we refer the reader to ref. 29, which provides a comprehensive overview and description of the tool and its background. Further information can also be found on the relevant websites: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/2050-pathways-analysis.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1). The my2050 tool represents a simplified version of the UK energy system 4, 29,30 . It enables respondents to explore different energy futures to meet the UK's 2050 carbon target of an 80% cut in emissions by adjusting seven supply-side and seven demand-side levers each with four 'effort' levels (see Methods, Fig.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While interactive scenario tools and my2050 in particular have important advantages, the assumptions that they make should not be viewed uncritically 29,32 . These tools also have the potential to restrict a participant's exploration and choices because they simplify what are in reality a set of highly complex technical, economic and social policy issues (additional commentary on the use of my2050 to engage members of the public are articulated in ref.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of exemplar scenarios on public preferences for energy futures using the my2050 scenario-building tool

2017

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Understanding which energy future configurations provide publicly acceptable levels of energy security, a ordability, and environmental protection is critical for institutional decision-making. However, little is known about how scenarios influence energy preferences. Here we present nationally representative UK data on public preferences for energy futures using the my2050 scenario-building tool that encourages engagement with the holistic complexities of system change. Engagement with the tool strengthened existing preferences for renewable energy and intentions to take personal action. Importantly, patterns of energy preferences were influenced by exemplar scenarios, which served as reference points that anchored choices. Carbon capture and storage, nuclear power, biofuels, and changes to heating and travel were particularly impacted by scenarios indicating uncertainty and ambivalence regarding these options. Scenarios (and scenario-building tools) are valuable for engaging citizens about future energy systems. However, care is required in their design and interpretation to reach robust conclusions about underlying preferences and acceptance.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of exemplar scenarios on public preferences for energy futures using the my2050 scenario-building tool

2017

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“…on-site interaction between modellers and stakeholders) have been found to yield notable result (as has been demonstrated in France) (Mathy et al, 2015b). Approaches that offer no direct feed-back, such as the My2050 online platform in the UK, have not been considered as effective methods in Allen and Chatterton (2013). In that regard, the current observations would suggest that participatory modelling is a promising method to draw out more robust long-term solutions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 80%

Low-carbon strategies towards 2050: Comparing ex-ante policy evaluation studies and national planning processes in Europe

Sluisveld

Hof

Vuuren

et al. 2017

Environmental Science & Policy

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The European Union (EU) is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels by 80%–95% in 2050 compared to 1990 levels. Various approaches have been developed to secure and evaluate the progress made towards this objective. To gain insights into how EU Member States are aligning to this collective long-term objective, we systematically compare the planning and ex-ante evaluation processes for five EU countries (respectively Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom). The comparative analysis consists of a qualitative comparison of (1) the governance of long-term policy planning and evaluation processes, (2) the national arrangement for quantitative (model-based) ex-ante policy evaluation and (3) the national arrangement for qualitative ex-ante policy evaluation (stakeholder participation). In a second step we conduct a quantitative comparison of national model-based ex-ante evaluation studies to assess the relative differences between the considered routes and the differences across the various countries. Although the five Member States plan policies along the same EU objective, we find a high diversity in how long-term commitments are established, governed and evaluated on the national level. Model-based scenario analyses are commonly used to explore and evaluate the possible national routes towards the EU 2050 objective. However, as these processes mostly concentrate on domestic action, they pay little attention to how domestic policies are affected by, or affecting, other international activities throughout Europe. Hence, current findings suggest that cross-border collaboration and stakeholder participation could further strengthen the analytical understanding of required transformative change in Europe and subsequently lead to a more durable long-term solution over time

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Renewable energy in Latin America and scenarios to the Brazilian energy matrix by 2050

Corrêa

Quelhas²,

Andrade³

et al. 2022

Handbook of Energy and Environmental Security

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Carbon reduction scenarios for 2050: An explorative analysis of public preferences

Cited by 17 publications

References 15 publications

Effects of exemplar scenarios on public preferences for energy futures using the my2050 scenario-building tool

Effects of exemplar scenarios on public preferences for energy futures using the my2050 scenario-building tool

Low-carbon strategies towards 2050: Comparing ex-ante policy evaluation studies and national planning processes in Europe

Renewable energy in Latin America and scenarios to the Brazilian energy matrix by 2050

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