The Swine Flu Emergency Department: The Relationship Between Media Attention for the Swine Flu and Registrations in an Emergency Medicine Unit

Objective: To assess accuracy of telephone triage in identifying patients who need emergency care amongst those with suspected COVID-19 infection and identify factors which affect triage accuracy. Design: Observational cohort study Setting: Community telephone triage in the Yorkshire and Humber, Bassetlaw, North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire region. Participants: 40, 261 adults who contacted NHS 111 telephone triage services provided by Yorkshire Ambulance Service NHS Trust between the 18th March 2020 and 29th June 2020 with symptoms indicating possible COVID-19 infection were linked to Office for National Statistics death registration data, hospital and general practice electronic health care data collected by NHS Digital. Outcome: Accuracy of triage disposition (self-care/non-urgent clinical assessment versus ambulance dispatch/urgent clinical assessment) was assessed in terms of death or need for organ support at 30, 7 and 3 days from first contact with the telephone triage service. Results: Callers had a 3% (1, 200/40, 261) risk of adverse outcome. Telephone triage recommended self-care or non-urgent assessment for 60% (24, 335/40, 261), with a 1.3% (310/24, 335) risk of subsequent adverse outcome. Telephone triage had 74.2% sensitivity (95% CI: 71.6 to 76.6%) and 61.5% specificity (61% to 62%) for adverse outcomes at 30 days from first contact. Multivariable analysis suggested some co-morbidities (such as chronic respiratory disease) may be over-estimated as predictors of adverse outcome, while the association of diabetes with adverse outcome may be under-estimated. Repeat contact with the service appears to be an important under recognised predictor of adverse outcomes with both 2 contacts (OR 1.77 95% CI: 1.14 to 2.75) and 3 or more contacts (OR 4.02 95% CI: 1.68 to 9.65) associated with clinical deterioration when not provided with an ambulance or urgent clinical assessment. Conclusion: Patients advised to self-care or receive non-urgent clinical assessment had a small but non-negligible risk of serious clinical deterioration. The sensitivity and specificity of telephone triage was comparable to other tools used to triage patient acuity in emergency and urgent care. Repeat contact with telephone services needs recognition as an important predictor of subsequent adverse outcomes.

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Accuracy of telephone triage for predicting adverse outcomes in suspected COVID-19: an observational cohort study

Marincowitz

Stone

Bath

et al. 2022

BMJ Qual Saf

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ObjectiveTo assess accuracy of telephone triage in identifying need for emergency care among those with suspected COVID-19 infection and identify factors which affect triage accuracy.DesignObservational cohort study.SettingCommunity telephone triage provided in the UK by Yorkshire Ambulance Service NHS Trust (YAS).Participants40 261 adults who contacted National Health Service (NHS) 111 telephone triage services provided by YAS between 18 March 2020 and 29 June 2020 with symptoms indicating COVID-19 infection were linked to Office for National Statistics death registrations and healthcare data collected by NHS Digital.OutcomeAccuracy of triage disposition was assessed in terms of death or need for organ support up to 30 days from first contact.ResultsCallers had a 3% (1200/40 261) risk of serious adverse outcomes (death or organ support). Telephone triage recommended self-care or non-urgent assessment for 60% (24 335/40 261), with a 1.3% (310/24 335) risk of adverse outcomes. Telephone triage had 74.2% sensitivity (95% CI: 71.6 to 76.6%) and 61.5% specificity (95% CI: 61% to 62%) for the primary outcome. Multivariable analysis suggested respiratory comorbidities may be overappreciated, and diabetes underappreciated as predictors of deterioration. Repeat contact with triage service appears to be an important under-recognised predictor of deterioration with 2 contacts (OR 1.77, 95% CI: 1.14 to 2.75) and 3 or more contacts (OR 4.02, 95% CI: 1.68 to 9.65) associated with false negative triage.ConclusionPatients advised to self-care or receive non-urgent clinical assessment had a small but non-negligible risk of serious clinical deterioration. Repeat contact with telephone services needs recognition as an important predictor of subsequent adverse outcomes.

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The Swine Flu Emergency Department: The Relationship Between Media Attention for the Swine Flu and Registrations in an Emergency Medicine Unit

Cited by 4 publications

References 26 publications